We look at the likelihood of any shot going in based on the position of the shot, whether it was from a cross or pass, whether it was a header or shot, and if it resulted from open play or a set piece. Each of these variables has a different chance of a goal. For example, a shot in the 6 yard box is five times more likely to end up in a goal than a header from around the penalty spot.
We add a player's shots up to give them an expected goals value (xGoals) and do the same for assists (xAssists). Not all key passes are equal. Putting crosses into the 6 yard box is more likely to reward an assist than teeing someone up for a long-range effort.
xGoals is multiplied by the player's points per goal in FPL (e.g. midfielder = 5pts) and xAssist is multiplied by 3 to give an Expected Points value (xPts). At the moment this is attacking points only. Bonus Points and Clean Sheet points are not included currently but will be soon.
It's very simple and we've tested the accuracy of xPts on last season's data and it's extremely accurate. We'll publish the proof of this soon too.
Check out GW2's top ranked players here or click the image below. In a one gameweek sample each team's opposition will make a big difference but using the search box to view players by team allows you to view player's relative to their team mates.
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| Top Ranked Man Utd players from GW2 |
