Wednesday, September 25

6GW Outlook for Fantasy Defenders


With 5 weeks of football under our belts we can tighten up our view on some of the early season assumptions we've all made about which teams are the strongest defensively and which players we want in our teams. 

We've looked at each teams Goals Against (GA) and Clean Sheets (CS) but also coupled these with our underlying stats. Hopefully you'll be used by now to seeing xG or xGoals on our Player Ratings tables. We've deduced xGA (expected Goals Against), for each team to illuminate the teams who are securing clean sheets on the back of strong defensive displays.

We've also referenced our Fixture Analyser which estimates each team's 6GW ranking based on the opposition they'll face.

The Big Five

Chelsea  3 CS | 2 GA | 3.6 xGA | Fixtures 6th
An away day at Spurs doesn't look to great but after that and with Chelsea's obvious defensive strengths it's all gravy. 

Most Potential: Ivanovic £6.5m A genuine goal threat

Value Pick: Terry £6m Remains a key player for Mourinho

Man Utd 2 CS | 6 GA | 4.2 xGA | Fixtures 4th

They may be reeling from the 4-1 defeat at City but they are still a solid team. After the 6-1 defeat two seasons ago United went on an outstanding run of clean sheets.

Most Potential: Evra £6.5m Involved in a lot of United's attacking play


Value Pick: Ferdinand (£5.5m) Trusted by Moyes


Tottenham 4 CS | 1 GA | 2.7 xGA | Fixtures 4th

Clearly turning heads with their defensive performances already driven by the strength of their midfield. The outlook remains great for Spurs.

Most Potential: Vertonghen (£7m) A bonus point magnet in the extreme and is likely to pick up 2 or 3 extra points per clean sheet. Also look to Walker (£6m), a key creative player for Spurs.


Value Pick: Dawson (£5.1m) Ridicoulsy cheap really, FPL clearly didn't think he'd hold down his place. He is Spurs captain and unlikely to be displaced anytime soon.



Liverpool 3 CS | 3 GA | 5.1 xGA | Fixtures 3rd

It's fair to say Liverpool got lucky with at least two of their three clean sheets so far, as can be seen y their relatively high xG value, but their mentality this season has often been a defensive one. 

Most Potential: Enrique (£6.1m) Always involved going forward and poses a goal and assist threat.


Value Pick: Mignolet (£5.8m) Until Sakho or Toure can demonstrate they are regular picks Mignolet remains the cheapest option in the Liverpool defence.


Southampton 3 CS | 2 GA | 4.2 xGA | Fixtures 2nd

The Saints are living up to their pre-season billing as the value defensive side in the league this season. Not conceding is clearly uppermost in Pochettino's thoughts.

Most Potential: Fonte (£4.7m) Scored goals from set-pieces last season and has shown the same threat this season with as many shots on goal as the rest of Southampton's defence put together.


Value Pick: Clyne (£4.4m) Suffered a price drop after missing a few games, he's now back in the starting line-up. 


Our 'Clean Sheet' Dream Defence
This team is our affordable pick of players from the above teams. It's not super affordable, admittedly, but with 4-3-3 looking a profitable formation this defence could pack a lot of punch.


Boruc

Ferdinand
Terry
Enrique
Vertonghen


Attacking Options...
We picked the teams and players above based primarily on their team's basis to return clean sheets. The two other teams closest to our current big five are Everton and Man City and both boast attacking defenders which could make up for a lost clean sheet or two.

City are actually joint top of our defensive rankings with Spurs (xGA 2.7) but this has been buffered by some easy fixtures and their next 6GWs don't look too promising. In Zabaleta however they have a player likely to pick up an assist or two through any run of games.

Everton of course have major attacking talent in Coleman and Baines plus a couple of tasty home games on the horizon.