A full round of midweek games gives us the perfect chance to
make up for the frustrations of the weekend just gone. As usual we
will be looking at the first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer markets and using
the Inside FPL stats to uncover some under the radar players who may provide
some big priced value. I also want to introduce a new type of bet in player
goal minutes.
The numbers from Gameweek 13 see several of the usual
FPL suspects top the expected goals chart. Nestled in amongst Aguero, Rooney
and Giroud however is a new name in that of Gerard Deulofeu. The diminutive Spaniard marked his first Premier
League start with a total of 5 shots, 4 on target and 3 from zones A/B. If we
also look at the season to date stats we can see Deulofeu is now racing
up the list of expected goals by Everton players despite only having played 247
minutes in the league.
Deulofeu loves to run with the ball at his feet and already
looks like an ideal foil for target man Romelu Lukaku. Everton will fancy his
chances of causing problems for a Manchester United defence that has sometimes
struggled against similar tricky opponents this season (Amalfatino and
Arnautovic spring to mind) and we fancy his chances to open the scoring at 16/1
(Bet365).
The two defenders with the highest expected goals continue to be Chelsea duo Branislav
Ivanovic and John Terry. Chelsea really share out the goals and have had a remarkable fifteen different goalscorers so far this season. This midweek they face a Sunderland side who, although not the worst, are still near to the top
of the tables for both corners conceded and headed attempts conceded. Both
Terry and Ivanovic have scored against the Black Cats in recent seasons and we can’t split
them so will bet half stakes on each to score first at the same price of 25/1
(BetFred, Totesport, Coral, PaddyPower).
In Gameweek 12 we mentioned that Aston Villa were
conceding the most headed goal attempts in the league, although West Brom were
unable to make the most of this on that occasion. On Wednesday Southampton will
try their luck and look to take advantage of the set piece delivery of young
midfielder James Ward-Prowse. The players hoping to get on the end of these
crosses will likely be centre backs Dejan
Lovren and Jose Fonte. The season ratings show both defenders have
offered a similar goal threat this season but at a more favourable price we
will plump for a BUY of Lovren player goal minutes at 4 (Spreadex).
What is Player Goal Minutes?
An interesting alternative to the first goalscorer market,
player goal minutes is a spread bet where your job is to predict the minute(s)
in which your chosen player will score. Rather than a straight win or loss, the
result of the bet is the aggregate of the minutes in which your player scores.
For example, if your player scores twice, in the 54th and 73rd
minutes, the result is 127. If your player doesn’t score the result is 0. By
placing a BUY bet you are betting that your player’s total will be higher than
the price quoted. The more goals our player scores, and the later in the game
he scores them, the more we stand to win.
*** A note about Spread Betting ***
Spread Betting has a reputation for being risky and it is
true that some spread markets can be very volatile. My advice to beginners would
be stick to markets where you can easily calculate the most money you can lose
on your bet before you place it. In the example above, if you bet £1 then the
total risk is £1 PER MINUTE. If the player does not score the result is 0 and
you lose £1 x 4 minutes = £4.
That’s all, as before if anyone has any questions about any
games I haven’t mentioned feel free to ask. Good luck!
Selections
Wednesday – Man United v Everton: Gerard Deulofeu first
goalscorer @ 16/1 (Bet365)
Wednesday – Sunderland v Chelsea: John Terry first
goalscorer @ 25/1 (BetFred, Totesport)
Wednesday – Sunderland v Chelsea: Branislav Ivanovic first
goalscorer @ 25/1 (Coral, PaddyPower)
Wednesday – Southampton v Aston Villa: Dejan Lovren BUY player goal minutes @ 4 (Spreadex)
Previous Game Week
Saturday – Everton v Stoke: Romelu Lukaku first goalscorer @
5/1 (Bet365) - LOST
Saturday – Norwich v Crystal Palace: Leroy Fer first goalscorer
@ 12/1 (Bet365) - LOST
Sunday – Chelsea v Southampton: Frank Lampard first
goalscorer @ 9/1 (Bet365, BetVictor) VOID
