Shooting Stats for Premier League Players [2011/12 to present]

As mentioned a few days ago in our update to our Expected Goals model we've now got access to the data from all shots since the start of the 2011/12 season, almost 30,000 of them, and from this we've been able to get an idea of individual players long-time shot to goal conversion rates, or how good they are at scoring a goal. 

Up until now our stats and projections made a rather false assumption that all players are equal in their shooting. We did add a small negative modifier (-20%) to defender's shooting chances but other than that the model assumes all players were the same.

We've put the table on a separate page HERE.

It includes most Premier League players of note from the last 2 and half seasons who have more than 50-odd shots to their name during that time. It excludes goals and expected goals from penalties and free kicks which are a different kettle of fish to what we are attempting to measure here. 

• Goals - excluding those from penalties or direct free kicks
• xG - 'Expected Goals' this is the number of goals the average Premer League player would score from the given opportunities based on shot location and type and pass type.
• Finishing -  The ratio of goals to expected goals. The higher the better.
• Goalscoring - Actual goals minus expected goals, i.e. how many goals the players has scored more than the average player would. It's not normalised and thus is unfair on players who have played less over the last 2.5 season (see Lukaku, Benteke, Hazard). We'll try to normalise by 90 minutes one day but still think it's nice to see how many 'extra goals' a player could be considered to contribute.
• Trend Chart - Shooting rate going back in time in 40 shot buckets.
• Sortable - the table is sortable by any column, click on the headings.

Caveats and Implications

As the data goes back to the start of the 2011/12 season it's a big old average of what has happened in all that time and of course things change. Look up Aaron Ramsey in the table (use the search box) for example, despite his amazing goal rate this season he's low down with a crappy 78% finish rate, due to his overall record since 2011/12 where he wasn't much cop in the shooting department. There's a similar tale for Aguero, Sturridge and Suarez who this season have all gone up a notch on their historic level. This is the reason we have added the trend bars, to add more context.

Mostly the numbers look seem indicative of what we know of player's finishing ability. Lukas Podolski, for example, was recently talked up by Wegner as an "unbelievable finisher" and he's up at the top of the table. This only goes to boost the fantasy appeal of players like Hazard and Johnson right now too and we hope to have a look at some of the notable players in more detail.

Emerging Prospects, Fading Stars - GW23

Welcome to this new article were we'll be running an eye over some of the latest developments in player ownerships and evaluating whether they are good moves. The definitions of emerging prospects and falling stars will be loose, but hopefully the analysis won't be!

Emerging Prospects

Juan Mata

With a move to Manchester United, Juan Mata provides the perfect example of what this article is about. Mata was a fantasy hit last year, ending as the 2^nd highest scoring midfielder, with a PPG of 6.1, but has been out of favour with Mourinho this year. A move away from Stamford Bridge brings the Spaniard right back into contention and presents an excellent alternative in midfield. With current ownership of just 4.2% he also represents a rare opportunity of differential status and proven quality.

Taking a quick look at Mata’s stats we see his attacking activity is massively down this year on last year. But I feel it would be fairest to look at his stats from the 2012/13 season, when he was playing regularly and in a role he was suited too, as it’ll give us a better idea of how he might do in Manchester.

Player	Season	Apps	Per Game Stats
			Minutes	Points	Goals	Shots	Shots on Target	Assists	Key Passes
Mata	13/14	13	66.2	2.3	0	0.8	0.1	0.2	2.3
	12/13	35	81.1	6.1	0.3	2	0.7	0.3	2.7
Hazard	13/14	22	87.2	6.1	0.4	1.8	0.8	0.2	2.4

Comparing Mata’s stats last year, to Hazards this year, we see that Mata could match Hazard for points if he can replicate past performances. His PPG matches Hazards this year to demonstrate what a brilliant fantasy asset he could be. He shot more often than Hazard has been, though fewer are on target, and created more chances. At Manchester United he’s likely to play a more creative role with Van Persie and Rooney in the team, so expect assists rather than goals from him.

Not only are the stats good, but the outlook is good as well. Since he is cup tied in the FA Cup and Champions League, he is virtually guaranteed a start in every premier league game. His injury record is also good, suggesting he’ll be a reliable pick in midfield. After a stop-start first half of the season, Mata will also be well rested and chomping at the bit to play regular football in an effort to get his career, and world cup chances, back on track. He’s also a route into Man United’s nice fixtures, which include Cardiff, Stoke, Fulham and Crystal Palace in the next 6, ranked 2^nd for attacking fixtures in the next 6 GWs.

So far Mata sounds perfect, but we do have to add some caveats. He is out of form and may not be fully match fit, his stats this year are a huge worry since there’s no guarantee that’ll he’ll get back to performing like he did last year. It’s also not clear how he’ll fit into the team, especially with Van Persie and Rooney back fit.

However, Mata’s possible return to first team football could be as exciting for fantasy fans as it will be for football fans.

Verdict: Speculative Buy. But await team news before the deadline to see if he starts.

Samuel Eto’o

Off the back of a hat-trick againt Man United in GW22, and a month long knee injury keeping Torres out for a month, fantasy managers are presented with a way into the Chelsea frontline in the form of the Cameroonian striker. With Demba Ba out of favour it seems like Eto’o will be first choice for Premier League games.

With Suarez and Aguero securing places in every team, there’s only one slot left for a striker, so it should be used wisely. Priced at 8.2, Eto’o is competing with the likes of Negredo, Sturridge, Giroud, Lukaku and Adebayor, so here’s a comparison of their key stats.

Player	Apps	Per Game Stats
		Minutes	Points	Goals	Shots	Shots on Target	Assists	Key Passes
Eto'o	12	63.3	4.9	0.5	2.8	1.3	0.1	0.8
Negredo	21	66.2	4.4	0.4	2.7	1.1	0.1	0.9
Sturridge	14	82.7	6.8	0.8	3.4	1.6	0.2	0.9
Giroud	20	90.6	5.3	0.5	3.5	1	0.3	1.2
Lukaku	20	81.8	5.2	0.5	2.9	1.3	0.3	1
Adebayor	7	82.9	7.1	0.7	2.1	1.1	0.3	1.4

Eto’o clearly keeps pace with his rival, with the second most shots on target per game, despite averaging far fewer minutes. Accounting for him playing fewer minutes would see Eto’o beat all but Sturridge for his attacking activity. He’s also the only player on the list who’s not currently scoring more than we would expect him too, so there’s no need to fear for regression in his goal scoring.

The worry with Eto’o is his game time, he’s only played 12 out of 22 league games so far, and has never started more than 2 in a row. This may be due to rotation and other options upfront, but it might suggest that the 32 year old doesn’t have the fitness he did 5 years ago at his peak. Even with Torres out and Ba unfavoured, Eto’o still presents a huge risk in your team.

With Hazard so widely owned now, it’s worth considering whether your willing to double up on Chelsea attackers, especially since they face Man City away in a couple of weeks and Mourinho has so far been very cautious in big games. It’s hard to imagine Mourinho wanting to concede many at the Etihad, but to stop their devastating attack you really have to sacrifice attacking threat. Having said that, Mourinho will probably look to attack on the counter, and while Eto’o lacks the pace of his youth, he will be the beneficiary of those counters. A home game against a woeful West Ham next will delay these fears though.

Verdict: Worthy of a Punt. There are better and more reliable options, notably Sturridge, but Eto’o has the potential to deliver if you’re sure of his gametime.

Fading Stars

Mesut Ozil

It seems odd that one of the best players in the premier league should be the first player to be highlighted as a fading star, but he is the 3^rd most transferred out so far this gameweek with owners losing patience with the German who has not scored or assisted since GW16.

Using those last attacking points as a cutoff, let’s compare how Ozil has performed during his dry run and before that run.

Player	Game Range	Apps	Per Game Stats
			Minutes	Points	Goals	Shots	Shots on Target	Assists	Key Passes
Ozil	GW17-22	4	89.5	2.5	0	1.3	0.3	0.0	3.8
Ozil	GW4-16	13	90.5	6.9	0.3	1.3	1	0.5	2.8

We see there’s absolutely no drop-off in Ozil’s underlying stats, in fact he’s created far more chances in the last 4 games than in the previous 13! All that’s changed is his shot accuracy is down, and his team-mates aren’t converting the chances he is creating. The absence of Ramsey, Walcott and Giroud through injury may explain the lack of conversion. In any case, the lack of points is not due to Ozil’s play.

So, Ozil’s production hasn’t dropped off, but there’s now the option of Santi Cazorla who has returned to the fray after a long term injury, and declared his presence with 2 goals versus Fulham the previous weekend. How do these two compare?

Player	Apps	Per Game Stats
		Minutes	Points	Goals	Shots	Shots on Target	Assists	Key Passes
Ozil	17	90.3	5.9	0.2	1.3	0.8	0.4	3
Cazorla	16	82.6	4.1	0.2	2.7	1	0.1	1.9

One stat stands out to me here, shots per game. Cazorla has twice as many shots as Ozil, and has more on target per game. He isn’t as creative as Ozil, but he’s more shot happy, and unlike Ozil he isn’t relying on teammates to get his points.

If we narrow Cazorla’s gameweek range to only look at his performances since his return from injury and the difference is even bigger. Since GW18 he has averaged 4.4 shots per game, and 1.8 shots on target per game, he’s also created 2.8 chances, just shy of Ozil’s 3. Considering he’s a 0.5 saving over Ozil, it’s hard to see why the Spaniard shouldn’t be chosen ahead of his teammates.

Verdict: Sell. His performances are still great, but with a cheaper option in the Arsenal midfield that offers a bigger upside there’s a clear reason to ditch Ozil at this time.

Updates To Expected Goal Model

Here at InsideFPL we are on a non-stop quest to get underneath the performances of teams and players in order to understand what’s going on, and from this give you as much information as possible to help you boss bragging rights in your all-important fantasy mini-leagues.

Our ‘Expected Goals’ model and stats are an example of that. Player Statistics like shots and key passes are a very useful and popular indicator of a player’s potential goals and assists. This season we’ve taken this to the cutting edge of football analysis by classifying each shot by position and type and assigning it an ‘expected goals’ value based on typical goal conversion rate for this kind of shot.

The current xG model you’ll be used to from our Player Ratings and which is used to determine our Point Projections was based on last season’s data. Over the last month we’ve gone through the exhausting task of collecting and collating the data from the 2011/12 season too, and with both of these plus the current season data we now have almost a thousand matches and near 30,000 shots to draw from.

To get to the point, with almost three times the data we’ve been able to round out some of the variables and make some improvements to the model. We’ve been able, for example, to nail down an expected goal value for shots from through balls where as previously, without enough data, we had just classed these as normal passes. For reference, through balls are gold dust!

Here’s a look at Expected Goals (xG) vs. Actual Goals since 2011/12 so you can see how accurate an approximation xG is.

With the extra data we’ve also been able to look at some historical trends for player’s shot conversion which will say now will be very important for fantasy football managers.

At the moment we’ve updated our Player Stats for GW22 with the data from the current model. Over the next few days and in time for GW23 we hope to move it all over to the latest model as well as share some of the important insights we’ve found, particularly which players have a strong record of scoring goals for fun.

Fantasy Form : Lallana, Wilshere, Eriksen

Here's a look at a few of players for your Fantasy Premier Teams right now. All three scored goals this weekend. In this post we are going to have a look at their form over the season and the last few games. 

Adam Lallana

Minutes
Points	5.3
Stats	4.1

First up is Adam Lallana - not a player you'll be unaware of by now we hope - but he is currently setting the standard for midpriced midfielders and is a good place to start. Looking at his minutes played and stats from the graphic above we can straight away see two things that mark him out as successful FPL player - consistency of minutes played and consistency of attacking involvement by his Stats ("Stats" is our metric expected FPL points (xPts) each game determined from an aggregatie of shots and chances created). 

He's returned decent points in approximately half of the full games he's played which is why he's done so well and has ended up in 1 in 4 teams  But, as you can see, he's had periods without much joy too. One thing you can say about him though, is that thiswas not for want of trying - his statistical form remained good, he still got in shooting positions, created chances, things just didn't go his way. 

We think this is an important thing to remember. Players do not score metronomically, they go on runs, they go on droughts. You have to take the rough with the smooth. Patience, and knowledge of a players underlying performances can be key.

Jack Wilshere

Minutes
Points	4.3
Stats	3.6

Which leads us on to Jack Wilshere, and on the back of a goal and assist at Villa Park on Monday. We can see he's not made as many appearances as Lallana, with a short spell out injured, but on the whole he's been getting starts and seeing out the 90 minutes. His Points and Stats are both below Lallana but there are signs of promise there. 

As with Lallana, Wilshere's stats are consistent and respectable, and on a few occasions now he's produced the points. You could argue it took him a few weeks to get going but in his last 10 starts he's returned decent points on 4 occasions, a not too dissimilar rate to Lallana. So, is Jack worth a place in your team at £6.1m? On a pure value perspective, yes. Don't get us wrong, we'd rather have Lallana at the same price, but there's not much around at £6m these days and if you don't have Lallana already you're paying a lot just to keep up with those who do. Ongoing consistency of selection will be a key factor for Wilshere, especially with Ramsey's return in mind, but he could be a real alternative.

Christian Eriksen

Minutes
Points	5.1
Stats	4.0

Tottenham's Christian Eriksen completes our trio of in-from midfielders to get excited about right now. We can see his Points and Stats matches that of Lallana, as does his price, currently at £7.3m and rising.  The abject attacking performances of Spurs under AVB (you can read our analysis of that here) and Eriksen's minimal returns during that time make his recent hauls even more impressive. Currently owned by just under 6% of managers he makes another promising alternative to Lallana, although Spurs do face a much tougher run of fixtures than Southampton do, ranked 19 over the next 6GW in our Fixture Analyser, compared to Saints' run which ranks 2nd.