Monday, August 19

GW1 Talking Points and Analysis




GW1 has still has two games to go of course, with both involving important fantasy players, but here's our initial reaction to the much-welcomed return of Fantasy Premier League.

As well as looking at who scored points this weekend we've also analysed every team and player's underlying stats using a new mathematical model developed by Shots on Target. Each team is given a xG rating (expected Goals) based on the number and quality of shots achieved and within this each player is given a xP rating (expected points from goals & asssits).

We'll bring you a full and comprehensive analysis including all player's ratings once GW1 is complete.

Talking Points
  • Robin Van Persie Almost 50% of managers had RVP in their teams this weekend and he was the most-captained player, totally banishing any doubts over his worth to your team or how Moyes would start his Manchester United career. 
  • Seamus Coleman We tipped the Everton fullback through pre-season and he's out the blocks in style with a goal and an assist. His £5.0m price is set to rise £0.1-0.2m this week and if you have nothing more pressing he'd make a fine transfer, but if he's the real deal, he'll be worth a lot more by the end of the season so you can afford to miss out on any early price rises.
  • Ross Barkley Another player tipped in our Pre-Season guide and Newsletter, and indeed in our own team (but on the bench!). He set for a price rise today. Martinez will give the player chance to establish himself.
  • Romelu Lukaku His omission from Chelsea's starting line-up was a blow for our team as well as half a million others. He's got a second chance midweek against Villa though and we'll back him to make it up to us.
  • Arsenal 1-3 Aston Villa With their verve on the counter attack, Villa are not the kind of team you want to be giving cheap possession away to in the middle of the park. The Gunner's sloppiness fell neatly into the hands of Paul Lambert's team. Benteke's owners reaped the rewards, but this result heralds neither the demise of Arsenal nor the ascension of Villa.
  • Olivier Giroud A bad day at the office for Arsenal but they'll bounce back. Giroud had the highest xP of GW1 so far (xP 7.3) and fully deserved his goal. He could be a great player to own through the next several weeks, one to watch.
  • Phillipe Coutinho Unlucky not to come away with a lot more points, 5 shots and 6 chances created give him a xP rating of 7.1 amongst the very best of GW1. Sturridge, Enrique, Aspas, Johnson and Henderson all ranked very highly as well.
  • Eden Hazard Just a clean sheet point for the 37% owned Belgian but a xP of 7.1 based on 3 shots and 6 chances created. Owners should not worry and look forward to Wednesday.  Ivanovic and Lampard put in a strong shift too, the latter coming away with the points. Oscar (xP 4.5) was some way behind the other Chelsea players despite his goal.
  • Also Wilfied Bony's xP of 5.4 was based on 45 minutes of football, he was great value for his goal and we are looking forward to seeing what he can do against Tottenham next week. Soldado scored for Tottenham but Sigurdsson and Chadli were equally as involved in Spurs attack.
  • Theo Walcott Never in with much chance of points he may be a hard player to own if Arsenal don't pick up. Unlike Giroud, Walcott needs his team to be on top form for the chances to flow. 
  • Nicolas Anelka Zero shots and no chances created. Although Southampton's defensive performance should be applauded this is not a promising sign for owners of the £5.5m budget striker.
  • Dimitar Berbatov A similar tale for the Bulgarian. Zero efforts on goal or chances created. He's going to have to do much better against Arsenal next week or he's off the radar.