Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas

The medication has been dished out in large doses already this week as we batted about the risks and rewards of starting either of Daniel Sturridge or Romelu Lukaku in your GW1 team. Next up is Everton's Kevn Mirallas.

It may sound odd for Mirallas to be giving us a headache. He's hotly tipped around all fantasy football websites, and indeed was one the very first players we got excited about a few months ago when we started this blog (see Everton Under Roberto Martinez). When the price list was announced though we were very disappointed to see Mirallas at £7.5m. He didn't have a great season last year and we'd hoped for a price price around £6.5m, closer to that of attacking midfield team-mates Pienaar (£7m)  and Osman (£6.5m). 

A £7.5m price tag puts him into a little bit of a FPL deadzone as far as players go. Can you remember many midfielders that started the season at £7-8m that were any good to your teams? This price bracket is usually reserved for players like Sessegnon who do great one season at £6m then get a super price hike the next but don't really have enough going for them to deserve it.

Instead, it's properly recognised elite mids at £9-9.5m or breakout players at £6-6.5m who are often the key fantasy midfielders. Fitting a £7.5m player into your midfield often means forgoing on an elite midfielder, or upgrading on a £6m mid with cash from your forward line and defence.

So, is Mirallas worth it?  Over the full course of last season he averaged 4.7 pts per 90 minutes played. On it's own that's not good enough for a £7.5m price tag but he didn't start so well and missed a large chunk of the season with injury. Once he got back into the team he managed to pick his P90 up to 5.2 scoring 5 times in the final 12 games, with 1 assist. 

A P90 of 5.2 is definitely worth a £7.5m price tag but he'll have to pick it up even more this season if he wants to become really essential and share status in your team with the likes of Walcott and Hazard. The pre-season indications though are good. Martinez is a much more passionate about an attacking style of football than Moyes and has recognised Mirallas as the key player in the Toffees attack. He's also been given a share of free-kicks and corners during pre-season which should help his assists.

Verdict
The chances are that Kevin Mirallas will do at least as well as he did at the tail end of last season. He has as much potential as anyone to make a mockery of his starting price but things will have to click into place for him to become a truly essential asset this season, especially when you weigh him up against similar priced players like Berbatov and Dzeko.

He is one of two or three players that are 50-50 for our own team at the moment as we shuffle around different options between midfield and attack. The clock is ticking...

The Transfers are Rolling In

The cash is certainly beginning to be splashed by Premier League clubs and with the Fantasy Premier League price list expected to be released within a week or two you can bet those guys are busy behind the scenes too.

We've decided to forgo updating our transfer round-up page 'til later in the week in order to have a quick catch of some of the new signings to catch our eye in the last few days.

Nicolas Anelka (West Brom)

At 34 many will have doubts about and our most recent memory of him in the Premier League is being used out wide and not the goalscorer he was. If he can hold down the central striker role at West Brom he should be a hit. That's an if though, and we'll have to see how they shape up in pre-season.

Marco Van Ginkel (Chelsea)

A box to box midfielder who can score and create and will certainly shine given chance, but barring a couple of injuries, will have to compete with Lampard amongst others for game time so not an option for your fantasy team just yet.

Paulinho (Tottenham)

The much-coveted Brazilian has been a 1 in 4 goalscorer over his career (42 goals in 153 games) so should push for 10 goals this season, although has just 8 assists to his name in that same time so we'd expect ~150pts from him at best - so a fantasy price tag around £7m might see some interest from us.

Arouna Kone (Everton)

We talked up the potential for a new striker in our post "Everton under Martinez" and indeed mentioned the lively Ivorian as an option. He'll certainly expand Everton's attacking play but he's never really been a truly prolific goalscorer. We'd expect there'll be better options in Everton's team and for your 3 forward spots.

Everton under Roberto Martinez

"...we now play a system that is designed to get the best out of our players. It’s a system that has been made here to play the best we can with the players we have. Here we are now very well balanced. We are organised defensively and we are creating opportunities. It’s not a case of the players adapting to a system. It’s adapting to a system that suits our players..."   Roberto Martinez on his Wigan side in 2011

With the tactically astute Martinez installed as the Toffees new manager we expect him to push on from where he was headed with Wigan over the last few seasons, and Swansea before that. The 3-4-3 he pioneered at the Lactics is much talked about but let us remember this was a system he implemented to get the best out of his players at the time.

The Everton players he'll inherit do fit this system to some degree, particularly down the flanks where a Baines-Pienaar and Coleman-Mirallas will only need a modest tactical tweak to suit Martinez. It's central positions though that may need time to develop.  Everton fans won't be too encouraged to see defenders Jagielka or Distin attempting a short passing game. In central midfield Fellaini and Gibson are talented footballers but Goodison Park my wince a little to see them try and boss possession after years of a much more direct and risk-free approach under Moyes. 

A more lively centre forward than Jelavic may be needed too, a la Martinez's former employ Arouna Kone, and the central attacking midfield role would also need some consideration. Osman, Pienaar or the emerging Ross Barkley could enjoy some success but again the signing of someone like Shaun Maloney may be on the cards.

We would expect Martinez to start well but by building on Everton's current strengths and then, over time, develop the team into a more fluid, attacking side, with one or two signings along the way. 

Regardless of the exact formation and players though we fully expect Everton to be just as bountiful a side for your Fantasy Premier League team come 2013/14.  The key player from a FPL viewpoint will be out on the wings with the aforementioned Baines, Coleman, Pienaar and Mirallas the main candidates. A new signing in either the AMC or Centre Forward position would also be one to watch.

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