Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku

A Monday morning does of aspirin was needed after the first of our selection headaches this week, Daniel Sturridge's touch-and-go race for GW1 fitness. Our next headache is more of a rush of blood to the head kind as we contemplate the risks involved with Lukaku and Chelsea's double gameweek with Hull and Villa. 


There's so much going for the Belgian  He's led the line all through pre-season and scored 5 goals, the most of any Chelsea player. Demba Ba has scored just once and Torres none at all (surprised?). He fits the mould as an archetypal Mourinho centre forward - big, strong, fast, direct. Not to mention his incredible goal-scoring record and points per game (PPG) last season, over 7PPG with West Brom.

The downside of Lukaku is threat of rotation over a mini-fixture congestion that see's Chelsea play thrice in a eight days, including a trip to Old Trafford, before missing the GW3 Premier League fixture as they jet off to play Munich in the Super Cup. 

Frankly, he is Chelsea's best striker, he'll play the most minutes over their three fixtures, and even if Chelsea had just two games instead of three we'd have him in our team. 

Nurse, more aspirin please.

Chelsea's DGW - 5 Things to Consider

Getting your team tactics right for Chelsea's very attractive double gameweek where they play Hull and Aston Villa at home in GW1 is the first test of your Fantasy Premier League managerial skills. 

Below we've listed some things for you to think about. We're going to have a think too, and later this week in our newsletter we'll run through the different options and tactics available and the pros and cons of each.

1. Chelsea will no doubt score a good few goals in GW1 playing Villa and Hull at home. The numbers behind our Fixture Analyser reckon The Blues would average 4 goals from these two fixtures, that's just an average. It could be more. These aren't just any 2 fixtures, these are 2 very good fixtures, and at home to boot. 
2. In GW2 Chelsea go to Old Trafford, a hugely significant game for both new bosses. Statistically we expect this game to be low-scoring affair, 1-1. What we will say is this: Don't be put off from attacking Chelsea players in this fixture, a goal is not unlikely, but don't expect Chelsea to keep a clean sheet either. 
3. Mourinho has hinted at rest for those involved in the Confederations Cup, namely Mata, Torres and Azipilicueta. He's also talked up the importance of using Frank Lampard sparingly. Expecting any of these to feature in both games would be a risk. 
4. As well as expecting goals we should also not be at all surprised if Chelsea can keep two clean sheets. Mourinho's first instalment at Chelsea saw them break defensive records for home clean sheets in the Premier League. 
5. A final negative, and the most important to consider, Chelsea will have a blank fixture in GW3. If all goes well, and the rest of your team stays free from injury and suspension, and you don't need your first couple of transfers to pick up the new Michu, you might be okay to have your Chelsea players sit on the bench. Maybe. If.

So, should you load up your GW1 FPL team with Chelsea players? We'll look at the different strategies available to you and the ins and outs of each in our free newsletter this week.

Rooney Angry, Rooney Confused

Wayne Rooney's situation is making the headlines and and is great news for fantasy football.  He's priced at £10.5m in Fantasy Premier League and at that price a move away from Old Trafford to someone like Chelsea or Arsenal he's going to be a key asset in your team.

We'd fully expect him to be granted the lead striker role in any team he moved to and would no longer be in the shadow of Van Persie. He'd likely return to the form that saw him score 224 and 230 points in FPL 2009/10 and 11/12.

Chelsea's reported offer to United for Rooney and this morning's comments from Mourinho are particularly tantalising.

"We want the player. We made the bid and now we have nothing more to say.
"Now it's up to Manchester United."
Asked if Chelsea had made any other bids, Mourinho said: "No, and we won't."
Asked whether it is now "Rooney or bust", Mourinho said: "Yes."

Football365.com 

If Chelsea sign Rooney he'll be fantasy dynamite and a genuine alternative to £14m Van Persie. If he doesn't sign, and Mourinho's comments can be believed, it leaves the door open at Chelsea for someone to step up and another massive fantasy football opportunity. We can't help feel Romeu Lukaku (£8m) fits Mourinho's bill at Stamford Bridge and will be given that chance.

The Transfers are Rolling In

The cash is certainly beginning to be splashed by Premier League clubs and with the Fantasy Premier League price list expected to be released within a week or two you can bet those guys are busy behind the scenes too.

We've decided to forgo updating our transfer round-up page 'til later in the week in order to have a quick catch of some of the new signings to catch our eye in the last few days.

Nicolas Anelka (West Brom)

At 34 many will have doubts about and our most recent memory of him in the Premier League is being used out wide and not the goalscorer he was. If he can hold down the central striker role at West Brom he should be a hit. That's an if though, and we'll have to see how they shape up in pre-season.

Marco Van Ginkel (Chelsea)

A box to box midfielder who can score and create and will certainly shine given chance, but barring a couple of injuries, will have to compete with Lampard amongst others for game time so not an option for your fantasy team just yet.

Paulinho (Tottenham)

The much-coveted Brazilian has been a 1 in 4 goalscorer over his career (42 goals in 153 games) so should push for 10 goals this season, although has just 8 assists to his name in that same time so we'd expect ~150pts from him at best - so a fantasy price tag around £7m might see some interest from us.

Arouna Kone (Everton)

We talked up the potential for a new striker in our post "Everton under Martinez" and indeed mentioned the lively Ivorian as an option. He'll certainly expand Everton's attacking play but he's never really been a truly prolific goalscorer. We'd expect there'll be better options in Everton's team and for your 3 forward spots.

Andre Schurrle

What will Chelsea's new signing Andre Shurrle bring to your Fantasy Premier League side in 2013/14? Let us just say this, if he gets regular game time he'll be fantastic, but there's an if there that we need to expound upon.

He's played for Germany and Leverkusen as a very direct inside left forward, the same space on the pitch occupied so successfully last season for Chelsea though by Eden Hazard, a key FPL player in 2012/13.

Stats & Playstyle

His is a different game to Hazard though, he's direct, fast,  and physically strong, more akin to Arjen Robben, who we must not forget had a few good seasons under Mourinho at Chelsea - 18 goals, 22 assists, 72 starts.  

Schurrle's stats for Leverkusen over the last two seasons are not too far off from Robben's- 23 goals, 12 assists, 79 starts - numbers that would see both players hit around 5 points per game in FPL, or a ~175 pt season (Hazard reached190 pts from 16 goals, 12 assists, 31 starts, so better than them both).  

Adds New Dimension to Chelsea

Schurrle's play style brings a something new to Chelsea so we do think he will play a fair few games and do well for them, particularly away from home when he adds a lot on the counter attack. 

Used to be a Striker

He may also deputise as a striker which would be a real feather in his cap. He started out at F.C. Mainz as centre forward scoring 15 goals in 33 games before his move to Leverkusen and out to the left.  

Fantasy Potential

We'd expect Schurrle to score close to 175 pts if he played 35 games or thereabouts, so nothing ground breaking and we'd shell out around £8.5-9m personally to bring him in to our own FPL team if classed as a midfielder.

Verdict: HIT at £9m or less

FPL Transfer Rumours - Higuain

The two transfer rumours to whet our appetites right now are Gonzalo Higuain to Arsenal and Edison Cavani to Chelsea. There are other transfer gossips to get excited about but these are the current two that would bring established goalscoring pedigree to two of England's Champion League teams.

In our previous post we spoke about Mourinho's preference for a main goalscorer in his team, and other than the exceptional Cristiano Ronaldo, this is usually means dominant centre forward - see "Mourinho loves a goalscorer".  Cavaini fits this bill and we hope Chelsea can snag his signature ahead of Real Madrid - he'd certainly add some competition for Van Persie in the FPL elite striker bracket.

The other player to interest us is Real Madrid's Gonzalo Higuain. With 20 goals in 32 caps for Argentina and 111 goals from 207 appearances for Real Madrid over the last 5 seasons his name on the Arsenal team sheet will go a long way to boost Arsenal's firepower.

The Gunners are yet tp replace Van Persie's goals. Wegner's 2011/12's summer signing of Olivier Giroud, initially priced at £9m in FPL, didn't quite live up to the demands of the role, scoring 11 goals from 107 shots, 38 on target. Shot to goal conversion rates of 10% and 28% considerably below the league average for the centre forward position. Arsenal's other summer signing of Lukas Podolski, also priced at £9m, performed much better statistically but struggled to hold down a place in the starting XI.

A new centre forward would only need to perform to average to secure 15+ goals for Arsenal. A real quality forward such as Higuain could easily bag 20+ goals plus assists and with a price tag around £10m he would prove a tremendous asset. essentially replicating Suarez's output last season for a similar starting price (£9.5m).

Talk to us about this @InsideFantasyPL

2013/14 Opening Fixtures Preview

CLICK TO VIEW LARGER

Here's our Fixture Strength Preview for the first six gameweeks.  

Green Square = Home game versus opponent's who concede a lot
Yellow Square= Away game agaisnt easy opponent or home game agaisnt hard opponent
Red Square = Away against hardest opponents
Green Font = Home at medium ranked opponent
Yellow Font = Away at medium opponent

Highlights

• Chelsea  Three easy fixtures in the first six games, and the likelihood of a double gameweek with involvement in some European thing. They travel to Old Trafford and Goodison too but don't worry about that, it doesn't mean they won't score.
• Man City   Pellegrini's new side will host Hull and Newcastle in the first few weeks as well as travelling to Villa & Cardiff. Not super, but better than many others.
• Newcastle  If the Magpies can sort some of their problems out over the summer they could have a decent start with Hull and Fulham and West Ham to visit St. James early on.

Later this week we'll provide some more precise calculations about the opening fixture schedule and  decipher some early rotation options with Palace and Hull offering a decent match up at first glance.

Mourinho loves a Goalscorer

We had a feeling that Mourinho's return to Chelsea might shake up the way the Blues play and after a long hard pour through team and player statistic we think might be right. We looked at Chelsea's stats over the last 10 seasons and Real Madrid and Inter Milan's from when Jose was in charge (data source: ESPN).

Last season's FPL saw Juan Mata and Eden Hazard both do great for your teams, whilst striker Torres suffered further ignominy and ridicule. 

With Mourinho back at the helm we expect him to buy a dominant striker and set the team up to play to that strength. He likes his players to play their role and that means the striker to score goals. We'd love this to be Lukaku but with millions to spend he may as well go out and buy someone and Edison Cavani's name on the back of a Chelsea shirt would see us prepared to stump up £10-11m or so of our FPL budget come August, leaving Mata to pick up assists for our rival's teams.