Are 100,000 FPL managers right to sell Lukaku?

By the time we reach the Gameweek 12 deadline sales of Everton's Romelu Lukaku in Fantasy Premier League will probably exceed 100,000 since GW10. This is after around half a million people brought him in between GW5 and 8. 

As you can see from the chart below his ownership numbers has been something of a roller-coaster since the early hype pre-season, omission from the Chelsea game in GW1 and then a barnstorming 29 points in 3 games once he made his debut for Everton. If we ignore the 7-8% people who didn't sell him after GW2 as being 'inactive' then we can say that roughly 1 in 6 managers who bought Lukaku since his Everton move have gone on to sell him already.

Lukaku's ownership numbers since GW1

So what's gone wrong after it all went so right? And should you follow this trend if you own him yourself?

Our simple answer is yes, and if you've followed our team in our newsletter you'll remember that we too sold him ourselves in GW10 to bring in Aguero. At the time this transfer was more for the want of Aguero (vs Norwich) than any major downer on Lukaku himself. 

His form and his underlying stats over his last few weeks leaves us with few regrets though. As you can see from Lukaku's form card below, not only have the goals dried up so has his influence as the main goal-getter in the Everton team.

In the three games versus Hull, Tottenham and Crystal Palace Lukaku has had a total of 2 shots. Last season we made up a rule for our team which was that if a striker ever had a game where he had 0 shots he had to go. It doesn't matter what the opposition is, or how tough the game, if one of your precious striker slots is taken up by someone who doesn't manage a shot on goal he's on the 'sell list'. This is especially worse in Lukaku's case considering the 'plum' games against two promoted clubs. Even Spurs at home he should be at least registering a shot. 

Romelu Lukaku

Everton Forward

		Points	%Mins	xGoals/90	xAssists/90	aPts/90	%Team
		43	57%	0.32	0.04	2.0	19%
NOR(A)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
WBA(H)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
CAR(A)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
CHE(H)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
WHM(A)		7	46	1.5,0.21	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.24
NEW(H)		16	90	1.5,0.59	0.9,0.25	10.7,4.13	0.8,0.30
MCI(A)		6	81	1.5,0.34	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.98	0.8,0.41
HUL(H)		3	82	1.5,0.11	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.66	0.8,0.06
AST(A)		8	90	1.5,0.72	0.9,0.00	10.7,4.13	0.8,0.38
TOT(H)		1	85	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00	0.8,0.00
CRY(A)		2	90	1.5,0.03	0.9,0.03	10.7,0.26	0.8,0.02

As you can no doubt tell from our general tone despite being huge fans of his last season and early this season we are clearly down on Lukaku, and Everton's attack in general, especially with games against Liverpool, United and Arsenal in the next four.

Our preferred player and recommended forward in the £8m bracket has to be Loic Remy. We identified Newcastle as a team in form in our newsletter last week and a look at Remy's form card below through a difficult fixture list shows he's clearly firing on more cylinders than Lukaku right now. Lukaku still actually features in our 'projected team' but these three abject performances have really seen his projected points take a tumble in the last couple of weeks and we'll no doubt transfer him out from this team soon too.

Loïc Remy

Newcastle Forward

		Points	%Mins	xGoals/90	xAssists/90	aPts/90	%Team
		58	66%	0.35	0.10	2.3	22%
MCI(A)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
WHM(H)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
FUL(H)		4	17	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
AST(A)		2	62	1.5,0.06	0.9,0.22	10.7,1.00	0.8,0.08
HUL(H)		13	90	1.5,0.53	0.9,0.03	10.7,3.13	0.8,0.33
EVE(A)		8	90	1.5,0.32	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.86	0.8,0.32
CAR(A)		13	70	1.5,0.64	0.9,0.14	10.7,4.10	0.8,0.27
LIV(H)		2	90	1.5,0.14	0.9,0.06	10.7,1.01	0.8,0.11
SUN(A)		2	69	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00	0.8,0.00
CHE(H)		6	90	1.5,0.57	0.9,0.26	10.7,4.06	0.8,0.40
TOT(A)		8	74	1.5,0.31	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.77	0.8,0.25

Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku

A Monday morning does of aspirin was needed after the first of our selection headaches this week, Daniel Sturridge's touch-and-go race for GW1 fitness. Our next headache is more of a rush of blood to the head kind as we contemplate the risks involved with Lukaku and Chelsea's double gameweek with Hull and Villa. 


There's so much going for the Belgian  He's led the line all through pre-season and scored 5 goals, the most of any Chelsea player. Demba Ba has scored just once and Torres none at all (surprised?). He fits the mould as an archetypal Mourinho centre forward - big, strong, fast, direct. Not to mention his incredible goal-scoring record and points per game (PPG) last season, over 7PPG with West Brom.

The downside of Lukaku is threat of rotation over a mini-fixture congestion that see's Chelsea play thrice in a eight days, including a trip to Old Trafford, before missing the GW3 Premier League fixture as they jet off to play Munich in the Super Cup. 

Frankly, he is Chelsea's best striker, he'll play the most minutes over their three fixtures, and even if Chelsea had just two games instead of three we'd have him in our team. 

Nurse, more aspirin please.

Rooney Angry, Rooney Confused

Wayne Rooney's situation is making the headlines and and is great news for fantasy football.  He's priced at £10.5m in Fantasy Premier League and at that price a move away from Old Trafford to someone like Chelsea or Arsenal he's going to be a key asset in your team.

We'd fully expect him to be granted the lead striker role in any team he moved to and would no longer be in the shadow of Van Persie. He'd likely return to the form that saw him score 224 and 230 points in FPL 2009/10 and 11/12.

Chelsea's reported offer to United for Rooney and this morning's comments from Mourinho are particularly tantalising.

"We want the player. We made the bid and now we have nothing more to say.
"Now it's up to Manchester United."
Asked if Chelsea had made any other bids, Mourinho said: "No, and we won't."
Asked whether it is now "Rooney or bust", Mourinho said: "Yes."

Football365.com 

If Chelsea sign Rooney he'll be fantasy dynamite and a genuine alternative to £14m Van Persie. If he doesn't sign, and Mourinho's comments can be believed, it leaves the door open at Chelsea for someone to step up and another massive fantasy football opportunity. We can't help feel Romeu Lukaku (£8m) fits Mourinho's bill at Stamford Bridge and will be given that chance.