GW1 Bonus Points: Who & How

With 10 games now played in the new season of Fantasy Premier :League we can take a first peek at how the new Bonus Points System will play out this season and how it will affect our fantasy teams. It's early days, but the system is very transparent and we think we'll have it nailed after the first two or three weeks at which point we'll start incorporating it in our points projections.

GK/Defenders

• Luke Shaw and Seamus Coleman both picked up attacking points from goals/assists which added to their BPS score to earn them the maxiumum 3 BP. Mignolet's penalty save was a major factor in his 3 point return too.
• More interestingly, as defender's goals or penalty saves cannot be so easily predicted, maximum points were also awarded to Lovern of Southampton and Fulham's Hangeland. Both had a clean sheet as the core of their points but on pitch performance saw them eclipse team mates. Hangeland boosting his score with13 clearances as Fulham weathered Sunderland's attack.
• Looking through other defenders who scored a high BPS system we see that all had a clean sheet as the base of the points. The extra edge was had either on the back of a battling defensive game (Fulham, Southampton) or a genuine presence in attack (Glen Johnson, Zabaleta)

Midfielders

• Goal-scorers Oscar, Nolan, Cole and Barkley all claimed maximum bonus points. With the addition of an all round game scoring a goal as a midfielder is going to give you good chance of bonus points.
• Lampard's missed penalty lost him chance of maximum points, other than a goal Kasami had an anonymous performance as Fulham were on the defence and Nasri 's lack of minutes coming on as a sub was not enough. Yaya and Silva were both outdone by the BPS score from Aguero's goal and assist.
• Assists alone don't seem to be enough, especially from wider players who aren't involved as much in passing and defensive work.

Forwards

• It seems you'll need to pick up double attacking points as a forward to get in the Bonus Point mix. Welbeck and Benteke braces and Aguero's goal plus assist was enough for maximum BP. But not always, Van Persie's double strike earned only 2 BP behind Welbeck's maximum.
• The exception was Roberto Soldado who scored just one goal. but achieved maximum BP off the back of his overall game including a number of defensive actions. 

Conclusions and Early Indications

• A clean sheet is a great basis for bonus points. Add to this decent attacking potential from key passes/crosses (Johnson, Enrique, Zabaleta) or a strong defensive performance from clearances/tackles/recoveries (e.g. Hangeland. Vertonghen, Williams).
• Goal-scoring midfielders will always be in with a shout of picking up bonus points, especially those involved more centrally in the overall play (e.g. Cazorla, Mata)
• A goal alone is not enough for bonus points from strikers. Adding assists or a second goal looks to be a requirement (e.g. Van Persie)

Reaction to Man City 4-0 Newcastle

Quite an impressive run-out for City. They attacked with intent from the off and Newcastle never stood a chance. Aguero was a surprise starter and got the most points but Dzeko looked menacing and is a top transfer recommendation this week.

Man City's Style and Key Players

• Silva dropped inside from a default left wing position to link up play with Yaya and Fernandinho. The point of attack from here was to try and find Aguero or Dzeko centrally who would create something between them, or release Navas down the right wing to whip in a cross
• Despite goals for Silva and Yaya (free-kick) both were part of a dynamic midfield with Fernandinho. None stood out as being the single creator in chief or a constant goal threat with runs into the box.
• Aguero is perhaps the only player who can offer an alternative to Van Persie as a super-elite fantasy option for your team. Unlike Van Persie though, Aguero is not the focal point of an attack. That role falls to Dzeko who had 8 shots to Aguero's 3 and much greater presence in the box. Van Persie had 7 shots against Swansea.
• Defensively the team was solid and Zabaleta and Clichy both get into positions to score or create. Zabaleta's partnership with Navas looks the more potent though and a deliberate facet of City's gameplan.
• In Conclusion: Long-term rotation still threatens Dzeko but at £7.5m he's worth that risk. Highly recommend transfer. Zabaleta too is probably going to be a great player.

Newcastle's Woe

• Cabaye's exit to Arsenal looks very likely. He's almost the complete midfielder. His passing and goals have been highlighted in past seasons but his recoveries and interceptions during defensive phases of the game are stand out too.  An already weak team will miss him, a lot.
• A home game with West Ham offers an immediate test of Newcastle's resolve but with Taylor suspended and new-signing Yanga-Mbiwa out of his depth in an albeit difficult debut prospects don't look good.

GW1 Talking Points and Analysis

GW1 has still has two games to go of course, with both involving important fantasy players, but here's our initial reaction to the much-welcomed return of Fantasy Premier League.

As well as looking at who scored points this weekend we've also analysed every team and player's underlying stats using a new mathematical model developed by Shots on Target. Each team is given a xG rating (expected Goals) based on the number and quality of shots achieved and within this each player is given a xP rating (expected points from goals & asssits).

We'll bring you a full and comprehensive analysis including all player's ratings once GW1 is complete.

Talking Points

• Robin Van Persie Almost 50% of managers had RVP in their teams this weekend and he was the most-captained player, totally banishing any doubts over his worth to your team or how Moyes would start his Manchester United career. 
• Seamus Coleman We tipped the Everton fullback through pre-season and he's out the blocks in style with a goal and an assist. His £5.0m price is set to rise £0.1-0.2m this week and if you have nothing more pressing he'd make a fine transfer, but if he's the real deal, he'll be worth a lot more by the end of the season so you can afford to miss out on any early price rises.
• Ross Barkley Another player tipped in our Pre-Season guide and Newsletter, and indeed in our own team (but on the bench!). He set for a price rise today. Martinez will give the player chance to establish himself.
• Romelu Lukaku His omission from Chelsea's starting line-up was a blow for our team as well as half a million others. He's got a second chance midweek against Villa though and we'll back him to make it up to us.
• Arsenal 1-3 Aston Villa With their verve on the counter attack, Villa are not the kind of team you want to be giving cheap possession away to in the middle of the park. The Gunner's sloppiness fell neatly into the hands of Paul Lambert's team. Benteke's owners reaped the rewards, but this result heralds neither the demise of Arsenal nor the ascension of Villa.

Strong Performances

• Olivier Giroud A bad day at the office for Arsenal but they'll bounce back. Giroud had the highest xP of GW1 so far (xP 7.3) and fully deserved his goal. He could be a great player to own through the next several weeks, one to watch.
• Phillipe Coutinho Unlucky not to come away with a lot more points, 5 shots and 6 chances created give him a xP rating of 7.1 amongst the very best of GW1. Sturridge, Enrique, Aspas, Johnson and Henderson all ranked very highly as well.
• Eden Hazard Just a clean sheet point for the 37% owned Belgian but a xP of 7.1 based on 3 shots and 6 chances created. Owners should not worry and look forward to Wednesday.  Ivanovic and Lampard put in a strong shift too, the latter coming away with the points. Oscar (xP 4.5) was some way behind the other Chelsea players despite his goal.
• Also Wilfied Bony's xP of 5.4 was based on 45 minutes of football, he was great value for his goal and we are looking forward to seeing what he can do against Tottenham next week. Soldado scored for Tottenham but Sigurdsson and Chadli were equally as involved in Spurs attack.

Disappointing

• Theo Walcott Never in with much chance of points he may be a hard player to own if Arsenal don't pick up. Unlike Giroud, Walcott needs his team to be on top form for the chances to flow. 
• Nicolas Anelka Zero shots and no chances created. Although Southampton's defensive performance should be applauded this is not a promising sign for owners of the £5.5m budget striker.
• Dimitar Berbatov A similar tale for the Bulgarian. Zero efforts on goal or chances created. He's going to have to do much better against Arsenal next week or he's off the radar.

How to Keep Cool in GW1

All this week you've had the pleasure of sharing our thoughts on players who have been given us a selection headache in one way or another. Will they be fit? Will he get dropped? Is he good enough?

The truth though is behind the scenes at InsideFPL it's all serene waters. There have been tough decisions to make of course, but the kind of decisions where it's all good. Should we pick Coutinho and Dzeko or Mirallas and Sturridge? Koscielny or Mertersacker? How actually do you spell Koscienly?

The truth of it all, as far as picking the players is concerned, is we don't know what will happen. No one can predict what will actually happen. Goals in football are rare events. This is why Wigan fans can now forever treasure winning the F.A.Cup and why football has become endeared to us as all 'The Beautiful Game'.

We do know some things. Van Persie will score more goals than Aaron Ramsey. Ramsey will score more than Tony Hibbert. But in the finest of margins in which fantasy minileagues are won or lost all we can really do is pick from a group of players with a good chance of points and then roll the dice. 

Acknowledging this is key to becoming a top manager in FPL. Building your team to have the right balance between defence and attack, the right mix of risk and reward, the right blend of security and potential.

And this is how we'll stay cool whatever happens over the weekend. We don't know which players will score the most points but we do know that if all goes pear-shaped and we ask ourselves, in hindsight, if we would have done anything different, the answer will be no.

Regrets... we'll have a few, but then again, too few to mention.

If you want to see our GW1 team and our other recommend player picks they will be in our regular weekly newsletter to be published later today. You can sign up here.

Selection Headaches #5 - Edin Dzeko

You'll be pleased to know that this is our final selection headache of the week, after this it's all plain sailing to GW1 (yeah, right!). Previously banging on dustbin lids outside our bedroom window have been Daniel Sturridge, Romelu Lukaku, Nicolas Anelka and Kevin Mirallas. All but Anelka are so very close to our own team for Saturday, so what about Dzeko?

You know we like a stat or two around here so let's start off with Dzeko's FPL history. In his two full season's he's scored a points per game (PPG) of 6.4 last year and 8.1 the year before, averaging 7.2 overall. The cream of the crop in FPL net you around 7.5, e.g RVP, so Dzeko has to be considered amongst a group of player capable of hitting the maximum FPL has to offer.

The problem has been his minute played each season. He's only played about half the available games in both seasons and this is no good for your FPL teams. With this level of rotation built into his 7PPG with 2 PPG from some random auto-sub across a season he (and his sub) would score you 4.5PPG, or 171 points. Not bad. Would have placed him 4th forward overall last season.

This doesn't sound like an all too squad-friendly strategy though. What we're considering is starting Dzeko in GW1 and keeping him for as long as he looks like he'll be in the team. Pellegrini has been quoted describing Dzeko as his "main striker" and used him prominently in pre-season, where he scored plenty. As manager of Malaga, Pellegrini was also fond of a penalty box striker (Van Nisterlrooy/Saviola) in front of a more mobile attacking trio. There are good indications that Dzeko will be given a chance to prove his point that he's not just a 'supersub'.

As we write this we're pleased to see that Negredo has travelled with the Spain squad to Ecuador.  We're not pleased to see that he just scored though (Silva assist), but Ecuador is a long way from Manchester and we're pretty sure Dzeko will start in GW1 vs. Newcastle. The real fretting will start with next game against Cardiff. And then the next. 

The good news is he's cheap so doesn't unbalance your whole team, and there are some great similarly priced players like Berbatov/Lambert available as a direct exit strategy.

Verdict
Judged solely on his own merit he's worth it, but with similar issues with gametime security attached to players like Lukaku around Chelsea's DGW it starts to stack up pretty quickly into a major risk/reward situation. This last headache might last a while, but at the moment Daniel Sturridge's fitness boost might edge Dzeko out of our team.

Related headaches:

• Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge
• Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku
• Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas
• Selection Headaches #3 - Nicolas Anelka

Selection Headaches #4 - Nicolas Anelka

Our selection headaches have ceased bothering us now, we've become accustomed to that nagging sensation inside our head that we call our brain. So far this week Sturridge, Lukaku and Mirallas have been hot-wiring our neural paths and now it's time for Nicolas Anelka to do the same.

Priced at £5.5m we're wondering if Nicolas Anelka was sent down by one of the fantasy football gods (The Great Enabler perhaps?) who, upon seeing the £14m and £12m prices on Van Persie and Bale, thought to show pity on us mortals and solve all our problems.

Okay gods... what's the catch?

Anelka has averaged a points-per-game (PPG) over the full course of his travels through the Premier League of 4.9. To put this into perspective Crouch, Agonglahor, Shane Long all scored about the same last year with an average starting price of £6.5m, both this year and last.

Anelka's FPL high of 5.5 PPG came spearheading Chelsea's attack in 2008/09, scoring 19 goals in 37 games and a total of 179 points. He ended the season with a FPL value of £9.9m. His low came two years later, still at Chelsea, after being fielded on the right wing and managing just 6 goals and 4.2 PPG.

Now at West Brom, a better comparison may have been his time at Bolton, a season and half between 2006-2008. Given given pure striker's duty, he managed a PPG of 4.7 on the back of 21 goals in 53 games. 

But this was 8 years ago!  

He's not knackered though, and unless he gets a proper serious injury we can see him being the Baggies main striker this year, as he has been in pre-season. He may be rotated on occasion, but won't everyone? 

The main problem with Anelka in our eyes is that his upside (upper points potential) is not all that exciting. A 4.7 PPG forward like Anelka at £5.5m may prove exceptional value but high upside is vital in FPL and is what you should be aiming for with your three striker spots. Leave the value to be found in defence and GK. 

See also:

• Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge
• Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku
• Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas

Still to come... Edin Dzeko

Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas

The medication has been dished out in large doses already this week as we batted about the risks and rewards of starting either of Daniel Sturridge or Romelu Lukaku in your GW1 team. Next up is Everton's Kevn Mirallas.

It may sound odd for Mirallas to be giving us a headache. He's hotly tipped around all fantasy football websites, and indeed was one the very first players we got excited about a few months ago when we started this blog (see Everton Under Roberto Martinez). When the price list was announced though we were very disappointed to see Mirallas at £7.5m. He didn't have a great season last year and we'd hoped for a price price around £6.5m, closer to that of attacking midfield team-mates Pienaar (£7m)  and Osman (£6.5m). 

A £7.5m price tag puts him into a little bit of a FPL deadzone as far as players go. Can you remember many midfielders that started the season at £7-8m that were any good to your teams? This price bracket is usually reserved for players like Sessegnon who do great one season at £6m then get a super price hike the next but don't really have enough going for them to deserve it.

Instead, it's properly recognised elite mids at £9-9.5m or breakout players at £6-6.5m who are often the key fantasy midfielders. Fitting a £7.5m player into your midfield often means forgoing on an elite midfielder, or upgrading on a £6m mid with cash from your forward line and defence.

So, is Mirallas worth it?  Over the full course of last season he averaged 4.7 pts per 90 minutes played. On it's own that's not good enough for a £7.5m price tag but he didn't start so well and missed a large chunk of the season with injury. Once he got back into the team he managed to pick his P90 up to 5.2 scoring 5 times in the final 12 games, with 1 assist. 

A P90 of 5.2 is definitely worth a £7.5m price tag but he'll have to pick it up even more this season if he wants to become really essential and share status in your team with the likes of Walcott and Hazard. The pre-season indications though are good. Martinez is a much more passionate about an attacking style of football than Moyes and has recognised Mirallas as the key player in the Toffees attack. He's also been given a share of free-kicks and corners during pre-season which should help his assists.

Verdict
The chances are that Kevin Mirallas will do at least as well as he did at the tail end of last season. He has as much potential as anyone to make a mockery of his starting price but things will have to click into place for him to become a truly essential asset this season, especially when you weigh him up against similar priced players like Berbatov and Dzeko.

He is one of two or three players that are 50-50 for our own team at the moment as we shuffle around different options between midfield and attack. The clock is ticking...

Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku

A Monday morning does of aspirin was needed after the first of our selection headaches this week, Daniel Sturridge's touch-and-go race for GW1 fitness. Our next headache is more of a rush of blood to the head kind as we contemplate the risks involved with Lukaku and Chelsea's double gameweek with Hull and Villa. 


There's so much going for the Belgian  He's led the line all through pre-season and scored 5 goals, the most of any Chelsea player. Demba Ba has scored just once and Torres none at all (surprised?). He fits the mould as an archetypal Mourinho centre forward - big, strong, fast, direct. Not to mention his incredible goal-scoring record and points per game (PPG) last season, over 7PPG with West Brom.

The downside of Lukaku is threat of rotation over a mini-fixture congestion that see's Chelsea play thrice in a eight days, including a trip to Old Trafford, before missing the GW3 Premier League fixture as they jet off to play Munich in the Super Cup. 

Frankly, he is Chelsea's best striker, he'll play the most minutes over their three fixtures, and even if Chelsea had just two games instead of three we'd have him in our team. 

Nurse, more aspirin please.

Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge

This is the first in a series of quick-fire posts this week looking at a bunch of players that are giving us some real headaches personally as the build up to GW1 goes into overdrive.

First up is Daniel Sturridge. After a good couple of months recovering from an ankle injury he looks to have made a rapid return to fitness and tasted his first 45 minutes of pre-season football in a run out with Celtic over the weekend. 

He made a stunning impact after his January move to Anfield last season, scoring 99 points in a third of a season (1254 minutes). averaging 7.1 points per 90 minutes played, up there with the very best.

In his absence through pre-season new signing Iago Aspas, a £7m forward in FPL, has been ever-present in the central striker's role and has impressed, scoring four times in six games and had manager Rodger's praising his movement and finishing. 

Aspas started up-front again against Celtic, only to make way for Sturridge at half time, and it was the latter of the two this time who had Rodgers purring, citing his power, pace and interplay with Coutinho and Gerrard. However, Sturridge is still in the race for full fitness with Rodgers adding that he "'...is working hard to get fit and after those 45 minutes we have a behind-closed-doors game in midweek and we'll assess him after that.'

Let's get to the point then. The risk in starting Sturridge in your GW1 team is that he comes off the bench against Stoke for a 1 pointer. The probability of this happening is fairly high too, with his borderline fitness and Aspas a capable alternative in Rodgers' mind.  Liverpool travel to Villa the following gameweek so Sturridge, given he starts, could well start to make up for a low GW1 score immediately but the subsequent two games in GW3 and GW4 are Man(H) and Swa(A), not great. By GW7 Suarez will be back in contention and Liverpool's forward options will come into question again.

Verdict

You can see why we have this headache! Sturridge will play a major role in FPL this season but our verdict is it's better to wait and see how things unfold in the first few weeks, unless of course Rodgers comes out later this week with a firm sign he'll start in GW1. 

Coutinho gives a much more reliable option from Liverpool , and even if Sturridge does start well players like Soldado, Dzeko and Lukaku can match his early points over the first few weeks.