Are 100,000 FPL managers right to sell Lukaku?

By the time we reach the Gameweek 12 deadline sales of Everton's Romelu Lukaku in Fantasy Premier League will probably exceed 100,000 since GW10. This is after around half a million people brought him in between GW5 and 8. 

As you can see from the chart below his ownership numbers has been something of a roller-coaster since the early hype pre-season, omission from the Chelsea game in GW1 and then a barnstorming 29 points in 3 games once he made his debut for Everton. If we ignore the 7-8% people who didn't sell him after GW2 as being 'inactive' then we can say that roughly 1 in 6 managers who bought Lukaku since his Everton move have gone on to sell him already.

Lukaku's ownership numbers since GW1

So what's gone wrong after it all went so right? And should you follow this trend if you own him yourself?

Our simple answer is yes, and if you've followed our team in our newsletter you'll remember that we too sold him ourselves in GW10 to bring in Aguero. At the time this transfer was more for the want of Aguero (vs Norwich) than any major downer on Lukaku himself. 

His form and his underlying stats over his last few weeks leaves us with few regrets though. As you can see from Lukaku's form card below, not only have the goals dried up so has his influence as the main goal-getter in the Everton team.

In the three games versus Hull, Tottenham and Crystal Palace Lukaku has had a total of 2 shots. Last season we made up a rule for our team which was that if a striker ever had a game where he had 0 shots he had to go. It doesn't matter what the opposition is, or how tough the game, if one of your precious striker slots is taken up by someone who doesn't manage a shot on goal he's on the 'sell list'. This is especially worse in Lukaku's case considering the 'plum' games against two promoted clubs. Even Spurs at home he should be at least registering a shot. 

Romelu Lukaku

Everton Forward

		Points	%Mins	xGoals/90	xAssists/90	aPts/90	%Team
		43	57%	0.32	0.04	2.0	19%
NOR(A)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
WBA(H)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
CAR(A)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
CHE(H)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
WHM(A)		7	46	1.5,0.21	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.24
NEW(H)		16	90	1.5,0.59	0.9,0.25	10.7,4.13	0.8,0.30
MCI(A)		6	81	1.5,0.34	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.98	0.8,0.41
HUL(H)		3	82	1.5,0.11	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.66	0.8,0.06
AST(A)		8	90	1.5,0.72	0.9,0.00	10.7,4.13	0.8,0.38
TOT(H)		1	85	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00	0.8,0.00
CRY(A)		2	90	1.5,0.03	0.9,0.03	10.7,0.26	0.8,0.02

As you can no doubt tell from our general tone despite being huge fans of his last season and early this season we are clearly down on Lukaku, and Everton's attack in general, especially with games against Liverpool, United and Arsenal in the next four.

Our preferred player and recommended forward in the £8m bracket has to be Loic Remy. We identified Newcastle as a team in form in our newsletter last week and a look at Remy's form card below through a difficult fixture list shows he's clearly firing on more cylinders than Lukaku right now. Lukaku still actually features in our 'projected team' but these three abject performances have really seen his projected points take a tumble in the last couple of weeks and we'll no doubt transfer him out from this team soon too.

Loïc Remy

Newcastle Forward

		Points	%Mins	xGoals/90	xAssists/90	aPts/90	%Team
		58	66%	0.35	0.10	2.3	22%
MCI(A)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
WHM(H)		0	0	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
FUL(H)		4	17	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00
AST(A)		2	62	1.5,0.06	0.9,0.22	10.7,1.00	0.8,0.08
HUL(H)		13	90	1.5,0.53	0.9,0.03	10.7,3.13	0.8,0.33
EVE(A)		8	90	1.5,0.32	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.86	0.8,0.32
CAR(A)		13	70	1.5,0.64	0.9,0.14	10.7,4.10	0.8,0.27
LIV(H)		2	90	1.5,0.14	0.9,0.06	10.7,1.01	0.8,0.11
SUN(A)		2	69	1.5,0.00	0.9,0.00	10.7,0.00	0.8,0.00
CHE(H)		6	90	1.5,0.57	0.9,0.26	10.7,4.06	0.8,0.40
TOT(A)		8	74	1.5,0.31	0.9,0.00	10.7,1.77	0.8,0.25