Welcome to this new article were we'll be running an eye over some of the latest developments in player ownerships and evaluating whether they are good moves. The definitions of emerging prospects and falling stars will be loose, but hopefully the analysis won't be!
Emerging Prospects
With a move to Manchester
United, Juan Mata provides the perfect example of what this article is about. Mata
was a fantasy hit last year, ending as the 2nd highest scoring
midfielder, with a PPG of 6.1, but has been out of favour with Mourinho this
year. A move away from Stamford Bridge brings the Spaniard right back into
contention and presents an excellent alternative in midfield. With current
ownership of just 4.2% he also represents a rare opportunity of differential
status and proven quality.
Taking a quick look at Mata’s stats we
see his attacking activity is massively down this year on last year. But I feel
it would be fairest to look at his stats from the 2012/13 season, when he was
playing regularly and in a role he was suited too, as it’ll give us a better
idea of how he might do in Manchester.
Player
|
Season
|
Apps
|
Per Game Stats
|
||||||
Minutes
|
Points
|
Goals
|
Shots
|
Shots on Target
|
Assists
|
Key Passes
|
|||
Mata
|
13/14
|
13
|
66.2
|
2.3
|
0
|
0.8
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
2.3
|
12/13
|
35
|
81.1
|
6.1
|
0.3
|
2
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
2.7
|
|
Hazard
|
13/14
|
22
|
87.2
|
6.1
|
0.4
|
1.8
|
0.8
|
0.2
|
2.4
|
Comparing Mata’s stats last year, to
Hazards this year, we see that Mata could match Hazard for points if he can
replicate past performances. His PPG matches Hazards this year to demonstrate
what a brilliant fantasy asset he could be. He shot more often than Hazard has
been, though fewer are on target, and created more chances. At Manchester
United he’s likely to play a more creative role with Van Persie and Rooney in
the team, so expect assists rather than goals from him.
Not only are the stats good, but the
outlook is good as well. Since he is cup tied in the FA Cup and Champions
League, he is virtually guaranteed a start in every premier league game. His
injury record is also good, suggesting he’ll be a reliable pick in midfield.
After a stop-start first half of the season, Mata will also be well rested and
chomping at the bit to play regular football in an effort to get his career,
and world cup chances, back on track. He’s also a route into Man United’s nice
fixtures, which include Cardiff, Stoke, Fulham and Crystal Palace in the next
6, ranked 2nd for attacking
fixtures in the next
6 GWs.
So far Mata sounds perfect, but we do
have to add some caveats. He is out of form and may not be fully match fit, his
stats this year are a huge worry since there’s no guarantee that’ll he’ll get
back to performing like he did last year. It’s also not clear how he’ll fit
into the team, especially with Van Persie and Rooney back fit.
However, Mata’s possible return to
first team football could be as exciting for fantasy fans as it will be for
football fans.
Verdict: Speculative Buy. But await team news
before the deadline to see if he starts.
Samuel Eto’o
Off the back of a hat-trick againt Man
United in GW22, and a month long knee injury keeping Torres out for a month,
fantasy managers are presented with a way into the Chelsea frontline in the
form of the Cameroonian striker. With Demba Ba out of favour it seems like Eto’o will be first choice for Premier League games.
With Suarez and Aguero securing places
in every team, there’s only one slot left for a striker, so it should be used
wisely. Priced at 8.2, Eto’o is competing with the likes of Negredo, Sturridge,
Giroud, Lukaku and Adebayor, so here’s a comparison of their key stats.
Player
|
Apps
|
Per Game Stats
|
||||||
Minutes
|
Points
|
Goals
|
Shots
|
Shots on Target
|
Assists
|
Key Passes
|
||
Eto'o
|
12
|
63.3
|
4.9
|
0.5
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
0.1
|
0.8
|
Negredo
|
21
|
66.2
|
4.4
|
0.4
|
2.7
|
1.1
|
0.1
|
0.9
|
Sturridge
|
14
|
82.7
|
6.8
|
0.8
|
3.4
|
1.6
|
0.2
|
0.9
|
Giroud
|
20
|
90.6
|
5.3
|
0.5
|
3.5
|
1
|
0.3
|
1.2
|
Lukaku
|
20
|
81.8
|
5.2
|
0.5
|
2.9
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
1
|
Adebayor
|
7
|
82.9
|
7.1
|
0.7
|
2.1
|
1.1
|
0.3
|
1.4
|
Eto’o clearly keeps pace with his
rival, with the second most shots on target per game, despite averaging far
fewer minutes. Accounting for him playing fewer minutes would see Eto’o beat
all but Sturridge for his attacking activity. He’s also the only player on the
list who’s not currently scoring more than we would expect him too, so there’s
no need to fear for regression in his goal scoring.
The worry with Eto’o is his game time,
he’s only played 12 out of 22 league games so far, and has never started more
than 2 in a row. This may be due to rotation and other options upfront, but it
might suggest that the 32 year old doesn’t have the fitness he did 5 years ago
at his peak. Even with Torres out and Ba unfavoured, Eto’o still presents a
huge risk in your team.
With Hazard so widely owned now, it’s
worth considering whether your willing to double up on Chelsea attackers,
especially since they face Man City away in a couple of weeks and Mourinho has
so far been very cautious in big games. It’s hard to imagine Mourinho wanting
to concede many at the Etihad, but to stop their devastating attack you really
have to sacrifice attacking threat. Having said that, Mourinho will probably
look to attack on the counter, and while Eto’o lacks the pace of his youth, he
will be the beneficiary of those counters. A home game against a woeful West
Ham next will delay these fears though.
Verdict: Worthy of a Punt. There are better
and more reliable options, notably Sturridge, but Eto’o has the potential to
deliver if you’re sure of his gametime.
Fading Stars
It seems odd that one of the best
players in the premier league should be the first player to be highlighted as a
fading star, but he is the 3rd most transferred out so far this
gameweek with owners losing patience with the German who has not scored or
assisted since GW16.
Using those last attacking points as a
cutoff, let’s compare how Ozil has performed during his dry run and before that
run.
Player
|
Game Range
|
Apps
|
Per Game Stats
|
||||||
Minutes
|
Points
|
Goals
|
Shots
|
Shots on Target
|
Assists
|
Key Passes
|
|||
Ozil
|
GW17-22
|
4
|
89.5
|
2.5
|
0
|
1.3
|
0.3
|
0.0
|
3.8
|
Ozil
|
GW4-16
|
13
|
90.5
|
6.9
|
0.3
|
1.3
|
1
|
0.5
|
2.8
|
We see there’s absolutely no drop-off
in Ozil’s underlying stats, in fact he’s created far more chances in the last 4
games than in the previous 13! All that’s changed is his shot accuracy is down,
and his team-mates aren’t converting the chances he is creating. The absence of
Ramsey, Walcott and Giroud through injury may explain the lack of conversion.
In any case, the lack of points is not due to Ozil’s play.
So, Ozil’s production hasn’t dropped
off, but there’s now the option of Santi Cazorla who has returned to the fray
after a long term injury, and declared his presence with 2 goals versus Fulham
the previous weekend. How do these two compare?
Player
|
Apps
|
Per Game Stats
|
||||||
Minutes
|
Points
|
Goals
|
Shots
|
Shots on Target
|
Assists
|
Key Passes
|
||
Ozil
|
17
|
90.3
|
5.9
|
0.2
|
1.3
|
0.8
|
0.4
|
3
|
Cazorla
|
16
|
82.6
|
4.1
|
0.2
|
2.7
|
1
|
0.1
|
1.9
|
One stat stands out to me here, shots
per game. Cazorla has twice as many shots as Ozil, and has more on target per
game. He isn’t as creative as Ozil, but he’s more shot happy, and unlike Ozil
he isn’t relying on teammates to get his points.
If we narrow Cazorla’s gameweek range
to only look at his performances since his return from injury and the
difference is even bigger. Since GW18 he has averaged 4.4 shots per game, and
1.8 shots on target per game, he’s also created 2.8 chances, just shy of Ozil’s
3. Considering he’s a 0.5 saving over Ozil, it’s hard to see why the Spaniard
shouldn’t be chosen ahead of his teammates.
Verdict: Sell. His performances are still
great, but with a cheaper option in the Arsenal midfield that offers a bigger
upside there’s a clear reason to ditch Ozil at this time.
