As mentioned a few days ago in our update to our Expected Goals model we've now got access to the data from all shots since the start of the 2011/12 season, almost 30,000 of them, and from this we've been able to get an idea of individual players long-time shot to goal conversion rates, or how good they are at scoring a goal.
Up until now our stats and projections made a rather false assumption that all players are equal in their shooting. We did add a small negative modifier (-20%) to defender's shooting chances but other than that the model assumes all players were the same.
We've put the table on a separate page HERE.
It includes most Premier League players of note from the last 2 and half seasons who have more than 50-odd shots to their name during that time. It excludes goals and expected goals from penalties and free kicks which are a different kettle of fish to what we are attempting to measure here.
- Goals - excluding those from penalties or direct free kicks
- xG - 'Expected Goals' this is the number of goals the average Premer League player would score from the given opportunities based on shot location and type and pass type.
- Finishing - The ratio of goals to expected goals. The higher the better.
- Goalscoring - Actual goals minus expected goals, i.e. how many goals the players has scored more than the average player would. It's not normalised and thus is unfair on players who have played less over the last 2.5 season (see Lukaku, Benteke, Hazard). We'll try to normalise by 90 minutes one day but still think it's nice to see how many 'extra goals' a player could be considered to contribute.
- Trend Chart - Shooting rate going back in time in 40 shot buckets.
- Sortable - the table is sortable by any column, click on the headings.
Caveats and Implications
As the data goes back to the start of the 2011/12 season it's a big old average of what has happened in all that time and of course things change. Look up Aaron Ramsey in the table (use the search box) for example, despite his amazing goal rate this season he's low down with a crappy 78% finish rate, due to his overall record since 2011/12 where he wasn't much cop in the shooting department. There's a similar tale for Aguero, Sturridge and Suarez who this season have all gone up a notch on their historic level. This is the reason we have added the trend bars, to add more context.
Mostly the numbers look seem indicative of what we know of player's finishing ability. Lukas Podolski, for example, was recently talked up by Wegner as an "unbelievable finisher" and he's up at the top of the table. This only goes to boost the fantasy appeal of players like Hazard and Johnson right now too and we hope to have a look at some of the notable players in more detail.
