Thursday, June 27

Fixture Streaks

This is something new we are working on. When we look at our fixture matrix, or any fixture matrix for that matter, we often find it's not all that easy to see what we want to see.  It's clear that teams like United and Arsenal have the best chance of goals but we know that anyway without need for a matrix. It's easy to glance through the immediate list of games for the weekend ahead and we are also able to see where there's a plum individual game on the horizon.

What is not easily see is which sides have the best run of fixtures over a series of games.  Once you start looking at the fixture list over a spell of 3-6 games it's becomes a jumble. If you "sort" the fixtures by expected goals scored the result just puts the top scoring clubs at the top and you've learnt nothing.  The fixture is indeed jumbled up! It's randomly generated (mostly- Sky Sports we are looking at you!) and it's typically difficult to compare one clubs run of games to another's in terms of difficulty.. 

With Fixture Streaks we want to provide additional information to the current matrix.  We want to :

  1. # Rank a series of club's fixtures in difficulty relative to other ranges through the season - e.g. Team X's games through GW8, 9 and 10 is the BEST run of fixtures for any club ALL season.
  2. # Rank fixture difficulty for each club relative to other fixtures for the same club - e.g. Team B's fixtures GW12-17 is it's Worst run of games this year.
Here's are some examples for the first 10 gameweeks of the season, using goalscoring values:
  • # Manchester United have the very best 3 GW fixture run of all teams in GW8-10:  SOU(H), STO(H), FUL(A)
  • # Arsenal's Best 5GW run of games in from GW1-5: AST(H), FUL(A), TOT(H), SUN(A), STO(H) and this is the 4th best %GW run of any team.
  • # Thes best 2GW fixture run from the promoted clubs is GW6-7 for Cardiff: FUL(A), NEW(H)
  • # Liverpool's WORST run of 3 games is GW1-3: STO(H), AST(A), MUN(H)
We would also create a visualisation for this, here are some example graphs of relative 3GW fixture strength:

Relative 3GW Fixture Strength (GW3-10)

How does this sound? Is this something that would add value to the fixture list?

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