Luis Suarez or Daniel Sturridge?

We've lifted the above graphic from the GW6 issue of our free weekly newsletter. It shows the 8 gameweeks where Daniel Sturridge and Luis Suarez played together last season. We did this analysis for Rooney and Van Persie too. 

There are actually 9 games represented here due to a DGW which Sturridge only played 90 minutes due to injury.  As you can see we've totalled up the points per 90 minutes (PPG) for both players with and without each other on the pitch and the conclusions from last season was the same for both. Together they shared the points, on their own the bossed it.

From their two games together this season though (including the cup game with United), we have noticed a difference. Despite them again "sharing" the points versus Sunderland, albeit big points, Suarez vastly out-played Sturridge in terms of shots created with Sturridge uncharacteristically playing more of a creative role.

The two Form Cards below show both player's expected goals (xGoals) and assists (xAssists) based on shots taken and chances created, and from this expected attacking points (aPts) and their percentage of team's aPts. 

Luis Suárez

Liverpool Forward

		Points	%Mins	xGoals/90	xAssists/90	aPts/90	%Team
		13	17%	0.73	0.00	4.2	36%
STO(H)		0	0	0.9,0.00	0.9,0.00	5.9,0.00
AST(A)		0	0	0.9,0.00	0.9,0.00	5.9,0.00
MAN(H)		0	0	0.9,0.00	0.9,0.00	5.9,0.00
SWA(A)		0	0	0.9,0.00	0.9,0.00	5.9,0.00
SOU(H)		0	0	0.9,0.00	0.9,0.00	5.9,0.00
SUN(A)		13	90	0.9,0.73	0.9,0.00	5.9,4.22	0.8,0.36

Daniel Sturridge

Liverpool Forward

		Points	%Mins	xGoals/90	xAssists/90	aPts/90	%Team
		45	100%	0.35	0.11	2.3	25%
STO(H)		6	90	0.9,0.68	0.9,0.19	5.9,4.50	0.8,0.17
AST(A)		8	90	0.9,0.23	0.9,0.00	5.9,1.32	0.8,0.29
MAN(H)		8	90	0.9,0.34	0.9,0.00	5.9,1.99	0.8,0.30
SWA(A)		7	90	0.9,0.45	0.9,0.00	5.9,2.60	0.8,0.31
SOU(H)		2	90	0.9,0.22	0.9,0.06	5.9,1.42	0.8,0.23
SUN(A)		14	90	0.9,0.17	0.9,0.42	5.9,2.26	0.8,0.19

From this we can instantly see Sturridge was much more involved with assists against Sunderland then he has beeen, and had his lowest xGoals rating of the season, indeed he had just the 1 shot. In contrast Suarez was the main man for goals and was not involved with creating anything for anyone else at all.  The Capital One Cup game told a similar story. Suarez having 8 shots to Sturridge's 3. 

It's very early to make a firm conclusion but if this data tells us anything it's that Suarez is set to dominate for Liverpool and Sturridge will miss out. Liverpool's 3-5-2 formation in these last two games perhaps backs up this conclusion. Last season in a nominal 4-3-3 Suarez and Sturridge rotated across the front. This time a 3-5-2 allows both players to remain central. This of course, does not mean Sturridge won't score, but if this early trend continues it'll be difficult for him to keep up the pace he's set for himself this season. A lot will depend on how the team's setup upon Coutinho's return from injury but that could be several weeks away still as Liverpool enter an excellent run of games.

Fantasy Impact: Suarez, Sturridge, Rooney

Suarez returned to action last night for Liverpool's 1-0 loss to a Manchester United. It was an interesting game for Fantasy Managers. Here are a few pointers.

Liverpool's 3-5-2
Rodger's decision to play a 3-5-2 here is significant. He experimented with this formation towards the end of last season but this was a game he wanted to win and no experiment. 

Continuation of this formation is good news for Enrique who we already picked out as one of our top defensive picks in our post yesterday.

• Liverpool played 3-5-2 with Jose Enrique on the left wing and Henderson on the right. Victor Moses played centrally backed up by Gerrard and Lucas.
• Suarez and Sturridge played up top together.
• From his left-wing position Enrique managed 2 shots and 2 key passes. The most overall threat after Liverpool's two forwards.
• Moses played centrally, producing 1 shot and making two key passes.
• Back three were Toure, Skertel, Sakho.

Suarez vs. Sturridge
In this match, whilst Sturridge perhaps had the best single chance to score Suarez looked  more involved and as usual dominated his team's attack, having 8 shots to Sturridge's 3 and creating 4 chances. 

The feature piece in our free newsletter this week (sign up here) is the impact of big strikers on one another and in particular RVP with/without Rooney and Suarez with/without Sturridge. 

Both Van Persie and Suarez scored big last season but how did they do when the shared the pitch with their main rival for fantasy points?

Rooney
Rooney was United's main threat on the night and continues to look sharp and hungry. He came close to scoring himself with a couple of efforts, and made 5 shots in total as well as creating 3 chances.

He came away with an assist and importantly this came from a corner. A lot of Van Persie's consistency last season came from corners and assists. It's not likely that Rooney will displace RVP as United's main set-piece taker, but he's in the mix.

As already mentioned, our article in the newsletter this week analyses what how Rooney and Van Persie compare when on the pitch at the same time, and we can tell you now, it's pretty close. 

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Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge

This is the first in a series of quick-fire posts this week looking at a bunch of players that are giving us some real headaches personally as the build up to GW1 goes into overdrive.

First up is Daniel Sturridge. After a good couple of months recovering from an ankle injury he looks to have made a rapid return to fitness and tasted his first 45 minutes of pre-season football in a run out with Celtic over the weekend. 

He made a stunning impact after his January move to Anfield last season, scoring 99 points in a third of a season (1254 minutes). averaging 7.1 points per 90 minutes played, up there with the very best.

In his absence through pre-season new signing Iago Aspas, a £7m forward in FPL, has been ever-present in the central striker's role and has impressed, scoring four times in six games and had manager Rodger's praising his movement and finishing. 

Aspas started up-front again against Celtic, only to make way for Sturridge at half time, and it was the latter of the two this time who had Rodgers purring, citing his power, pace and interplay with Coutinho and Gerrard. However, Sturridge is still in the race for full fitness with Rodgers adding that he "'...is working hard to get fit and after those 45 minutes we have a behind-closed-doors game in midweek and we'll assess him after that.'

Let's get to the point then. The risk in starting Sturridge in your GW1 team is that he comes off the bench against Stoke for a 1 pointer. The probability of this happening is fairly high too, with his borderline fitness and Aspas a capable alternative in Rodgers' mind.  Liverpool travel to Villa the following gameweek so Sturridge, given he starts, could well start to make up for a low GW1 score immediately but the subsequent two games in GW3 and GW4 are Man(H) and Swa(A), not great. By GW7 Suarez will be back in contention and Liverpool's forward options will come into question again.

Verdict

You can see why we have this headache! Sturridge will play a major role in FPL this season but our verdict is it's better to wait and see how things unfold in the first few weeks, unless of course Rodgers comes out later this week with a firm sign he'll start in GW1. 

Coutinho gives a much more reliable option from Liverpool , and even if Sturridge does start well players like Soldado, Dzeko and Lukaku can match his early points over the first few weeks.