Selection Headaches #5 - Edin Dzeko

You'll be pleased to know that this is our final selection headache of the week, after this it's all plain sailing to GW1 (yeah, right!). Previously banging on dustbin lids outside our bedroom window have been Daniel Sturridge, Romelu Lukaku, Nicolas Anelka and Kevin Mirallas. All but Anelka are so very close to our own team for Saturday, so what about Dzeko?

You know we like a stat or two around here so let's start off with Dzeko's FPL history. In his two full season's he's scored a points per game (PPG) of 6.4 last year and 8.1 the year before, averaging 7.2 overall. The cream of the crop in FPL net you around 7.5, e.g RVP, so Dzeko has to be considered amongst a group of player capable of hitting the maximum FPL has to offer.

The problem has been his minute played each season. He's only played about half the available games in both seasons and this is no good for your FPL teams. With this level of rotation built into his 7PPG with 2 PPG from some random auto-sub across a season he (and his sub) would score you 4.5PPG, or 171 points. Not bad. Would have placed him 4th forward overall last season.

This doesn't sound like an all too squad-friendly strategy though. What we're considering is starting Dzeko in GW1 and keeping him for as long as he looks like he'll be in the team. Pellegrini has been quoted describing Dzeko as his "main striker" and used him prominently in pre-season, where he scored plenty. As manager of Malaga, Pellegrini was also fond of a penalty box striker (Van Nisterlrooy/Saviola) in front of a more mobile attacking trio. There are good indications that Dzeko will be given a chance to prove his point that he's not just a 'supersub'.

As we write this we're pleased to see that Negredo has travelled with the Spain squad to Ecuador.  We're not pleased to see that he just scored though (Silva assist), but Ecuador is a long way from Manchester and we're pretty sure Dzeko will start in GW1 vs. Newcastle. The real fretting will start with next game against Cardiff. And then the next. 

The good news is he's cheap so doesn't unbalance your whole team, and there are some great similarly priced players like Berbatov/Lambert available as a direct exit strategy.

Verdict
Judged solely on his own merit he's worth it, but with similar issues with gametime security attached to players like Lukaku around Chelsea's DGW it starts to stack up pretty quickly into a major risk/reward situation. This last headache might last a while, but at the moment Daniel Sturridge's fitness boost might edge Dzeko out of our team.

Related headaches:

• Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge
• Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku
• Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas
• Selection Headaches #3 - Nicolas Anelka

Selection Headaches #4 - Nicolas Anelka

Our selection headaches have ceased bothering us now, we've become accustomed to that nagging sensation inside our head that we call our brain. So far this week Sturridge, Lukaku and Mirallas have been hot-wiring our neural paths and now it's time for Nicolas Anelka to do the same.

Priced at £5.5m we're wondering if Nicolas Anelka was sent down by one of the fantasy football gods (The Great Enabler perhaps?) who, upon seeing the £14m and £12m prices on Van Persie and Bale, thought to show pity on us mortals and solve all our problems.

Okay gods... what's the catch?

Anelka has averaged a points-per-game (PPG) over the full course of his travels through the Premier League of 4.9. To put this into perspective Crouch, Agonglahor, Shane Long all scored about the same last year with an average starting price of £6.5m, both this year and last.

Anelka's FPL high of 5.5 PPG came spearheading Chelsea's attack in 2008/09, scoring 19 goals in 37 games and a total of 179 points. He ended the season with a FPL value of £9.9m. His low came two years later, still at Chelsea, after being fielded on the right wing and managing just 6 goals and 4.2 PPG.

Now at West Brom, a better comparison may have been his time at Bolton, a season and half between 2006-2008. Given given pure striker's duty, he managed a PPG of 4.7 on the back of 21 goals in 53 games. 

But this was 8 years ago!  

He's not knackered though, and unless he gets a proper serious injury we can see him being the Baggies main striker this year, as he has been in pre-season. He may be rotated on occasion, but won't everyone? 

The main problem with Anelka in our eyes is that his upside (upper points potential) is not all that exciting. A 4.7 PPG forward like Anelka at £5.5m may prove exceptional value but high upside is vital in FPL and is what you should be aiming for with your three striker spots. Leave the value to be found in defence and GK. 

See also:

• Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge
• Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku
• Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas

Still to come... Edin Dzeko

Selection Headaches #3 - Kevin Mirallas

The medication has been dished out in large doses already this week as we batted about the risks and rewards of starting either of Daniel Sturridge or Romelu Lukaku in your GW1 team. Next up is Everton's Kevn Mirallas.

It may sound odd for Mirallas to be giving us a headache. He's hotly tipped around all fantasy football websites, and indeed was one the very first players we got excited about a few months ago when we started this blog (see Everton Under Roberto Martinez). When the price list was announced though we were very disappointed to see Mirallas at £7.5m. He didn't have a great season last year and we'd hoped for a price price around £6.5m, closer to that of attacking midfield team-mates Pienaar (£7m)  and Osman (£6.5m). 

A £7.5m price tag puts him into a little bit of a FPL deadzone as far as players go. Can you remember many midfielders that started the season at £7-8m that were any good to your teams? This price bracket is usually reserved for players like Sessegnon who do great one season at £6m then get a super price hike the next but don't really have enough going for them to deserve it.

Instead, it's properly recognised elite mids at £9-9.5m or breakout players at £6-6.5m who are often the key fantasy midfielders. Fitting a £7.5m player into your midfield often means forgoing on an elite midfielder, or upgrading on a £6m mid with cash from your forward line and defence.

So, is Mirallas worth it?  Over the full course of last season he averaged 4.7 pts per 90 minutes played. On it's own that's not good enough for a £7.5m price tag but he didn't start so well and missed a large chunk of the season with injury. Once he got back into the team he managed to pick his P90 up to 5.2 scoring 5 times in the final 12 games, with 1 assist. 

A P90 of 5.2 is definitely worth a £7.5m price tag but he'll have to pick it up even more this season if he wants to become really essential and share status in your team with the likes of Walcott and Hazard. The pre-season indications though are good. Martinez is a much more passionate about an attacking style of football than Moyes and has recognised Mirallas as the key player in the Toffees attack. He's also been given a share of free-kicks and corners during pre-season which should help his assists.

Verdict
The chances are that Kevin Mirallas will do at least as well as he did at the tail end of last season. He has as much potential as anyone to make a mockery of his starting price but things will have to click into place for him to become a truly essential asset this season, especially when you weigh him up against similar priced players like Berbatov and Dzeko.

He is one of two or three players that are 50-50 for our own team at the moment as we shuffle around different options between midfield and attack. The clock is ticking...

Selection Headaches #2 - Romelu Lukaku

A Monday morning does of aspirin was needed after the first of our selection headaches this week, Daniel Sturridge's touch-and-go race for GW1 fitness. Our next headache is more of a rush of blood to the head kind as we contemplate the risks involved with Lukaku and Chelsea's double gameweek with Hull and Villa. 


There's so much going for the Belgian  He's led the line all through pre-season and scored 5 goals, the most of any Chelsea player. Demba Ba has scored just once and Torres none at all (surprised?). He fits the mould as an archetypal Mourinho centre forward - big, strong, fast, direct. Not to mention his incredible goal-scoring record and points per game (PPG) last season, over 7PPG with West Brom.

The downside of Lukaku is threat of rotation over a mini-fixture congestion that see's Chelsea play thrice in a eight days, including a trip to Old Trafford, before missing the GW3 Premier League fixture as they jet off to play Munich in the Super Cup. 

Frankly, he is Chelsea's best striker, he'll play the most minutes over their three fixtures, and even if Chelsea had just two games instead of three we'd have him in our team. 

Nurse, more aspirin please.

Selection Headaches #1 - Daniel Sturridge

This is the first in a series of quick-fire posts this week looking at a bunch of players that are giving us some real headaches personally as the build up to GW1 goes into overdrive.

First up is Daniel Sturridge. After a good couple of months recovering from an ankle injury he looks to have made a rapid return to fitness and tasted his first 45 minutes of pre-season football in a run out with Celtic over the weekend. 

He made a stunning impact after his January move to Anfield last season, scoring 99 points in a third of a season (1254 minutes). averaging 7.1 points per 90 minutes played, up there with the very best.

In his absence through pre-season new signing Iago Aspas, a £7m forward in FPL, has been ever-present in the central striker's role and has impressed, scoring four times in six games and had manager Rodger's praising his movement and finishing. 

Aspas started up-front again against Celtic, only to make way for Sturridge at half time, and it was the latter of the two this time who had Rodgers purring, citing his power, pace and interplay with Coutinho and Gerrard. However, Sturridge is still in the race for full fitness with Rodgers adding that he "'...is working hard to get fit and after those 45 minutes we have a behind-closed-doors game in midweek and we'll assess him after that.'

Let's get to the point then. The risk in starting Sturridge in your GW1 team is that he comes off the bench against Stoke for a 1 pointer. The probability of this happening is fairly high too, with his borderline fitness and Aspas a capable alternative in Rodgers' mind.  Liverpool travel to Villa the following gameweek so Sturridge, given he starts, could well start to make up for a low GW1 score immediately but the subsequent two games in GW3 and GW4 are Man(H) and Swa(A), not great. By GW7 Suarez will be back in contention and Liverpool's forward options will come into question again.

Verdict

You can see why we have this headache! Sturridge will play a major role in FPL this season but our verdict is it's better to wait and see how things unfold in the first few weeks, unless of course Rodgers comes out later this week with a firm sign he'll start in GW1. 

Coutinho gives a much more reliable option from Liverpool , and even if Sturridge does start well players like Soldado, Dzeko and Lukaku can match his early points over the first few weeks.