GW1-3 Top Ranked Midfielders (xPts)

xPts is our statistical measure of a player's expected attacking point based on their total number of shots, factoring in likelihood of a goal/assist dependent on key factors such as shot position, pass type, whether it was a header or not, and situation (set piece, open play). In general, shots (not headers) from six yard box or centre of penalty box resulting from open play give a player the best chance of a goal.

We took a look at the top ranked forwards a couple days ago, now let's run through the midfielders who are topping our xPt fantasy rankings.

Team	Pos	Player	Shots	xGoals	Key Passes	xAssist	xPts
Arsenal	MID	Walcott	8	1.1	9	1.3	9.1	15,9.06
Chelsea	MID	Hazard	6	0.9	10	0.9	7.3	15,7.28
Swansea	MID	Michu	5	0.8	8	0.8	6.1	15,6.09
Man City	MID	Silva	6	0.8	8	0.7	6.1	15,6.05
Stoke	MID	Walters	7	0.9	4	0.4	5.7	15,5.72
Liverpool	MID	Coutinho	9	0.5	6	1	5.7	15,5.67
Everton	MID	Barkley	13	0.8	5	0.5	5.3	15,5.33
Tottenhamr	MID	Paulinho	11	0.8	4	0.4	5.1	15,5.12
Sunderland	MID	Johnson	7	0.2	8	1.4	5.1	15,5.1
Swansea	MID	Hernández	5	0.6	6	0.6	5.1	15,5.06

Theo Walcott is right up there with 8 shots and 9 key passes, and you will know from watching him that he likes to do his work inside close to goal, driving past defenders into the penalty box for either a shot or cut-back low across goal to a team mate, usually Giroud who currently tops the ranking for forwads. 

Eden Hazard is Chelsea's leading man for goal-scoring chances. Whilst Lampard and Oscar have shot from distance a lot, Hazard has been getting much closer in on goal and he has been unlucky not to score. He to be the sharp end of Chelsea's attack and getting beyond the striker.

Ross Barkley definitely deserves a mention. Often in FPL a bargain-priced player like this will just score a goal from one shot on opening day and the bandwagon revs up. Remember Patrice Muamba's goal for Bolton on day one of 2010/11? Barkley is genuine though. He's a bit keen on long-range efforts and has been let down by team-mates who have failed to convert the chances he's created. Lukaku should fix that :)

Michu and Walters have both been unlucky not to score and you've got to feel Michu will notch sooner rather than later. He has benefited from playing as Swansea's main striker whilst Bony builds up his fitness.

A lot of FPL managers will be feeling let down by Coutinho this season. At £9m he doesn't come cheap now and has to deliver. The stats are on his side but it has to be mentioned most of his shots/key passes came in the Stoke game. He's been a bit anonymous since but that has a lot to do with how Rodgers set his team up in two tough games. Swansea should gift him sufficient opportunity to get back on his game.

You can check out the complete rannkings for every player and position here

GW1-3 Top Ranked Forwards (xPts)

Team	Pos	Player	Shots	xGoals	Key Passes	xAssist	xPts
Arsenal	FWD	Giroud	13	1.7	5	0.8	9	15,9.03
Liverpool	FWD	Sturridge	10	1.5	1	0.3	6.6	15,6.55
Man United	FWD	van Persie	13	1.4	2	0.2	6	15,5.97
Everton	FWD	Jelavic	7	1.1	3	0.5	6	15,5.97
Aston Villa	FWD	Benteke	8	0.9	7	0.8	5.9	15,5.85
Tottenham	FWD	Soldado	7	1.2	5	0.4	5.8	15,5.83
Southampton	FWD	Lambert	12	1	4	0.4	5.2	15,5.19
Man United	FWD	Welbeck	7	1.2	1	0	5.1	15,5.05
Man City	FWD	Agüero	6	0.6	7	0.9	4.9	15,4.93
Man City	FWD	Dzeko	10	1	2	0.3	4.9	15,4.88

This table shows the Fantasy Premier League Forwards who are currently topping our xPt Ratings. This is a statistical measurement of a player's expected attacking points from the quality and quantity of shots and key passes made and expected number of goals and assist from these.

It's not very surprising to see which players are topping this list, they are the one's that have scored the goals, but this demonstrates the power of these rankings. The top players aren't super-human. They simply play for a team that creates great chances for them and then they convert those chances at the rate which Premier League forwards should.

Giroud and Sturridge are joint top scorers with Benteke but importantly both have scored all their goals from open play. Benteke and Soldado have relied on penalties to boost their early tally. Is this something you want to rely on through the season? Van Persie is lurking ominously here. This is despite two very tough games for United. He's still had chances to score and of course rattled two great goals past Swansea.

Jelavic is the anomaly in this list. His stats say he should be good for a goal by now. He did pick up an assist from a rebounded shot which Coleman tucked away to grab all the glory. Jelavic appears to have continued from where he was last season, just unable to finish the chances he gets. Lambert, in contrast, has had a few less chances but has managed to score. People are starting to offload Lambert already but the stats support his case as a good striker for £7.5m. Of course, Giroud, Sturridge and co. are not much more expensive and are looking much more potent.

Our suggested interpretation of these stats is if a player has a high xPts AND is scoring points then he definitely a player to consider for your team. If his xPts are high but he's not scoring (i.e. Jelavic) then he has either been unlucky or perhaps isn't very good. It's rare that Premier League forwards "aren't very good" though, but a lack of confidence such as with Jelavic can really hurt a player's natural ability to find the net. Most telling of all is if a player has scored points but does NOT have a good xPts to back that up. He's probably got lucky and should not be expected to repeat the trick.

Next up we'll take a look through the top ranked midfieders but in the meantime you can check out the complete GW1-3 player ratings for yourselves here.

GW3 Match Centre and Ratings

Here is our statistical analysis of all the fixtures from GW3 based on our xG and xPts metric. these being the expectated goals scored by each team and attacking points by each player based on the quantity and quality of shots and key passes. 

You can find the complete GW3 xPt Ratings for every player here.

Be sure to join us tomorrow for a round-up of the first 3 GWs of action.

Arsenal 1.0 - 0.9 Tottenham
An absorbing contest and a great result for Arsenal but showed the quality of both teams. Giroud and Walcott continue to pose a very high level of threat for the Gunners.  Tottenham are still to score from open play this season. 

Key Attacking Players
Arsenal: Walcott (2.7), Ramsey (1.8), Giroud (1.8)
Spurs: Soldado (2.1), Paulinho (.3), Walker (1.2)

Cardiff 0.1 - 1.1 Everton
The Toffees will feel hard done by the penalty decision but this is the second game running that they have failed to turn possession and chances into goals. Their possession game at least is securing clean sheets. Cardiff's xG of 0.1 here is possibly the lowest we'll see all season. 0.1 basically means Cardiff would need to play this game ten times before they'd score.

Key Attacking Players
Cardiff: Kim (0.3)
EFC: Barkley (2.7), Jelavic (1.6), Mirallas (1.1)

Crystal Palace 1.5 - 1.1 Sunderland
Deserved 3 points in what may be a relegation decider come May next year. A long way off admittedly, but this is going to be a long hard season for both teams. Palace at least offer fantasy managers a few cheap attacking options. 

Key Attacking Players
Palace: Puncheon (2.4), Gabbidon (2.1), Williams (1.8)
Sunderland: Wickham (2.7), Johnson (2.1), Larsson (0.7)

Newcastle 1.9 - 0.3 Fulham
A decent performance in the end by Newcastle but the opposition in Fulham are really struggling to offer anything this season. Ben Arfa deserved his splendid goal but he still needs to be in a team that can score more goals to be worth £7m in FPL.  Cisse's scoring boots are still missing, last seen 2011.

Key Attacking Players
Newcastle: Cisse (2.7), Ben Arfa (2.2), Gouffran (1.8)
Fulham: Taarabt (1.3)

Liverpool 0.6 - 0.9 Man Utd
A deserved victory by Liverpool by all accounts, they are already in the habit this season of nicking a goal and holding on for the win. Van Persie will rue his late miss. Liverpool could easily have conceded in this game, as against Stoke and Villa too. Fine margins.

Key Attacking Players
Liverpool: Agger (1.6), Sturridge (1.1), Gerrard (0.9)
Man Utd: Van Persie (1.8), Evra (1.3), Welbeck (1.1)

Norwich 1.6 - 0.6 Southampton
A much improved performance for Norwich and pretty much the expected performance from both sides. Southampton had plenty of possession but were denied any real quality chances and Lambert was kept completely quiet. Leroy Fer had the most goal-scoring chances of anyone this weekend.

Key Attacking Players
Norwich: Fer (4.3), Elmander (1.8), Redmond (1.2)
Saints: Osvaldo (1.3), Lallana (0.9), Davis (0.6)

West Ham 0.8 - 1.2 Stoke
Allardyce was scathing of his team going forward after the game and this was a pretty inept performance against a side  that you need to be scoring against at home. The Hammers best chances fell to their defensive players. Not a good sign. Stoke are quietly going about their business and with an astute signing or two they could take advantage of poor showings from their mid-table rivals.

Key Attacking Players
West Ham: Diame (2.5), Reid (2.3), Noble (0.8)
Stoke: Walters (2.5), Jones (1.8), Wilson (1.2)

West Brom 0.6 - 1.0 Swansea
The Baggies are still to score this year and are now bottom of the league. Anelka was anonymous again. Troubles ahead. Swansea performed as expected really and Hernandez continued on from the form he showed last year before the Swan's season petered out.

Key Attacking Players
West Brom: Morrison (0.9), Yacob (0.8), Dorrans (0.6)
Swansea: Hernandez (3.0), Michu (2.2), Davies (0.7)

Check out the complete GW3 xPt Ratings for every player.